China recently unveiled a new missile with a longer range than normal air-to-air missiles. This has particular application because it could disrupt America’s logistical capabilities. As a result, it has inspired some trepidation among analysts. But they fail to account for many other factors that present a much more balanced view of the missile.
The missile is 18 feet long. According to Popular Mechanics, the new XX “is thought to have a range exceeding 100 miles, the typical maximum range of air-to-air missiles,” and could strike tankers. These are needed aircraft to supply notorious gas guzzlers like the F-35, or planes like the AWACs E-3 Sentry that need to remain in theatre for a long time to direct the air battle using their advanced sensors. Hitting the fueling tankers would limit American access to the region and advance China’s anti access area denial (A2AD) strategy.
The nightmare scenario from this new missile would work something like this: “In a future air battle, a Chengdu J-20 fighter loaded with PL-XX would attempt to fly around U.S. fighters to get behind them and search for a tanker or AWACs plane,” per Popular Mechanics magazine’s Kyle Mizokami. When it finds a target like that, “the J-20 would launch the missile from long range” at the vulnerable but needed craft “and then disengage. Even if the missile misses, the danger might force U.S. support aircraft to fly farther behind friendly lines, limiting their effectiveness in general.” In addition to limiting other assets like valuable carriers, this would give China a window of opportunity to quickly seize disputed territory in the South China Sea or elsewhere.
But there are many other possibilities as well. The J-20 tries to reach maximum speed and its engine explodes. Another J-20 uses an inferior engine that lessens its stealth signature and lowers its maximum speed. The upgraded radar on Arleigh Burke-class destroyers discovers this plane as soon as it takes off and watches the launch of the new missile in real time. It transmits the data to the improved heads-up display of an F-35 pilot who engages the missile “beyond the horizon.” Earlier, America’s Ohio-class submarine took advantage of its capabilities as a stealth missile sub to launch over 100 cruise missiles in less than 6 minutes without losing its stealth signature. Without their own radar the Chinese pilots do not even know the F-35 has already targeted the new missile, which is destroyed seconds later. The missile explodes 50 miles away from the vulnerable tanker which refuels the same F-35 without a second thought about the new long-range missile of the Chinese. Even assuming the missile is only damaged, America then uses its repurposed Paladin artillery to fire high-velocity projectiles that destroy the missile.
Every new weapon system should be assessed and analyzed. But when you move past the talking points delivered by the Chinese media, there is ample reason to suggest this will have a negligible effect on American operations for two reasons. There are significant flaws in Chinese assets, and America is upgrading their missile interception technology.
