“But given a lack of American leadership and other factors, China and Russia are sensing a chance to align their interests and outmaneuver the United States.”
A joint exercise between multiple countries in a region fraught with tension is normally good news for America and its Baltic NATO allies. Historically, the Baltic countries have fallen prey to Russian predations, and given aggressive Russian behavior throughout the region, they are feeling worried. But the joint training is between Russia and Chinese naval forces!
Three Chinese warships, a destroyer, a frigate, and a supply ship joined Russian corvettes and a rescue tug for what the Russian news calls “issues of joint anti-sabotage, anti-aircraft, and anti-ship defense.” That sounds defensively minded, but the countries participating, ships involved, and location of the event signals a new anti-American axis, area denial strategy, and Russian goals to displace NATO and become the hegemonic power in Eastern Europe.
China and Russia have been both friends and frenemies in the past 50 years due to competition for leadership in the Communist movement and what China viewed as unequal treaties regarding their border. China even seized disputed islands in 1969, and each stationed hundreds of thousands of soldiers in central Asia during the 1970s. But given a lack of American leadership and other factors, China and Russia are sensing a chance to align their interests and outmaneuver the United States.
There have been joint military exercises between the two countries in the volatile South China Sea, but the operation of Chinese ships in the Baltic is groundbreaking. This signals their intent to be a worldwide navy. On its face, this isn’t a horrible thing. Navies have the freedom to operate on the high seas, and responsible actors help control piracy.
But the frigates and destroyers of the Chinese navy are more than just anti-piracy vessels. The Chinese type 54 frigate is a particularly well-rounded craft designed for a variety of operations that could signal Chinese intentions. The ships have numerous anti-aircraft and anti-missile projectiles that would make it difficult for America and NATO to project their air power in the region. The Chinese ships also carried Special Forces that could also be used to seize key islands by surprise.
The Russian aggression in Ukraine, Crimea, and Eastern Europe takes a similar course that could use the skills they are practicing in the joint exercises. Russia has a much larger military and propaganda effort that destabilizes nearby countries. Then they strike quickly using non-conventional and conventional military assets to absorb a country or region, such as Georgia in 2008 and Crimea in 2014. Once their control on the ground is established, they present the world with the bloody option of taking it back or the bloodless option of acknowledging Russian control.
Applied in the Baltic, Chinese forces would help Russia prevent the timely intervention of NATO forces through the use of their denial missiles and the possible seizure of key islands, such as Saaremaa Island outside the Latvian port and capital of Riga. The end result is that Russia could end up seizing members of NATO in a matter of hours and days before the US and NATO have a chance to seriously respond.
With control of the territory, the Russians could argue that it would be too bloody and not worth the effort to take them back, and the better option for the West would be to simply accept the new status quo and the release of any NATO soldiers stationed there. Given the antiwar attitude that permeates America after long wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, this strategy could effectively work.
This is just a joint training maneuver. But it signals the possible intentions and capabilities of both actors in the region. Given the history of aggressive behavior by both countries, America should be willing to use its military force as a credible deterrent and get serious about national security and world peace.
