“Trump has since deleted his tweets that expressed support for Strange and has been distancing himself from the soon-to-be-former Senator.”
There’s an inauspicious red-brick row house nestled on A Street on Capitol Hill. Colloquially, it’s known among many Washington insiders as the “Breitbart Embassy”, acting as the staging ground for the publication’s DC operations. Given the website’s deep ties to American politics, it’s also currently the de facto headquarters of the publication’s brain trust. Reportedly, Steven Bannon and other alt-right leaders have been holding court at the Embassy, plotting out the early stages of what could be a brutal war with the GOP establishment throughout the 2018 campaign season.
The biggest battles are likely yet to come. 2018 is shaping up to be a major showdown between Bannon and his “alt-right” movement versus the GOP establishment.
Already, Bannon and Co. have secured a major victory, upsetting establishment pick Luther Strange in an Alabama special race. Despite the support of both President Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Strange was unable to retain the Senate seat he was appointed to. Instead, firebrand and “alt-right” populist Roy Moore locked up the primary, likely securing the Senate seat vacated by Jeff Sessions when he became Attorney General. Moore will have to face a Democrat in the actual election this fall, but given Alabama’s hard-right bent he likely won’t face much of a challenge.
These battles will largely play out in primary season before shifting to the main elections and showdowns with a resurgent Democratic Party.
Trump was a vocal supporter of Strange, but that support wasn’t enough for the Senator to hold off the Breitbart crew. Trump has since deleted his tweets that expressed support for Strange and has been distancing himself from the soon-to-be-former Senator.
Moore’s impending victory will create a lot of headaches for Mitch McConnell, and possibly even the Trump administration. However, the biggest battles are likely yet to come. 2018 is shaping up to be a major showdown between Bannon and his “alt-right” movement versus the GOP establishment. These battles will largely play out in primary season before shifting to the main elections and showdowns with a resurgent Democratic Party.
Steve Bannon’s War With the Establishment
When Steve Bannon was pushed out of the White House in mid-August, the alt-right’s most well-connected insider suddenly found himself on the outside looking in. There was clearly a lot of bad blood, and rumors quickly spread that Breitbart was planning to go to war. As the opening salvos were fired, however, it remained unclear who exactly the target was. President Trump and his administration? The Republican Party as a whole? The “swamp”?
Bannon quickly made his way back onto the stage to clarify that he intended to go to war for the President, not against.
Initially, the Trump Administration seemed the most logical target. On August 18th, the day Bannon was booted, many news websites were reporting that Breitbart was preparing to go to war with the President and his administration. While many former top-level staffers have taken at least a few days out of the spotlight before jumping back in, Bannon quickly made his way back onto the stage to clarify that he intended to go to war for the President, not against.
While laying out departure plans, Bannon claims to have had a conversation with President Trump in which the soon-to-return Breitbart boss promised to “go after” the Establishment. The President apparently gave his approval, encouraging Bannon to do so, and stating that he “needed it.” With the 2018 election season heating up, it’s becoming all the more clear what that means: Bannon and Breitbart news are planning an aggressive campaign against moderate and “good old boy” Republicans. For the Republican Establishment, this intraparty challenge couldn’t come at a worse time.
Bannon & Crew Preparing List of GOP Targets
Even as the GOP is struggling to maintain its tenuous grip on Congress, it will have to face challenges from both an increasingly potent Democratic Party, and from populist alt-right Republican primary challengers. Establishment leaders are worried that the primary fights could leave them too drained and damaged to hold off Democrats once the actual elections roll around.
Targeting Jeff Flake (R-AZ) is just the beginning for Bannon, Breitbart, and aligned big money donors, such as Robert Mercer.
Some of the Republicans Bannon is looking to target, such as Senator Jeff Flake out of Arizona, are already on Trump’s bad side. Flake has been extremely critical of the President and has gone as far as to publish a book slamming Trump and the “non-Conservative” populist movement he has given life to. With Flake already one of the most unpopular Senators in Congress -as measured by local approval ratings- he’s at a high risk of losing his seat. However, targeting Flake is just the beginning for Bannon, Breitbart, and aligned big money donors, such as Robert Mercer.
In Nevada, Bannon & crew are targeting GOP Senator Dean Heller, who refused to endorse Trump during the 2016 Presidential race. Challenger Danny Tarkanian, a firebrand attorney, has reportedly received the full backing of Bannon. Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee is also on the list of potential targets. Corker was originally among Trump’s more ardent backers, but in recent weeks has come to question the President and his abilities. This battle, if it comes to pass, could be especially intriguing as Corker enjoys relatively high approval ratings at home.
Roger Wicker is known for being a “good ole boy” establishment member. For Bannon, that might be enough to merit “war”.
Meanwhile, Mississippi GOP Senator Roger Wicker is also being considered for a primary challenge. Interestingly, Wicker has generally been supportive of the President and his legislative agenda. He also burnishes other alt-right credentials, such as denying climate change outright. Yet he is also known for being a “good ole boy” establishment member. For Bannon, that might be enough to merit “war”.
GOP Worried of Divided Funds, Losing Senate Majority
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is already one of the most unpopular Senators in the country and has become the face of what many consider to be one of the most incompetent Congress in recent history. Only 18% of Kentuckians approve of McConnell and a mere 16% of Americans approve of Congress, according to Gallup Polls. If McConnell loses his Senate Majority, expect his popularity to decline further, and for fellow Senators to question his ability to lead.
Democrats have put up stiff fights and a lot of money in special elections as GOP members of Congress left to fill roles in the White House administration.
All the while, the Republican Party is facing a resurgent Democratic Party that itself is finally showing signs of breaking with establishment interests or at least being more open to non-establishment ideas. Since Trump’s inauguration, Democrats have put up stiff fights and a lot of money in special elections as GOP members of Congress left to fill roles in the White House administration. The Trump Administration chose to pluck Republicans from GOP strongholds but even so faced several tough special election battles. While Democrats failed to come away with a much-needed victory, their strong showings bode ill for Republicans in 2018.
As the 2018 election season comes underway, more viable districts will be put into play. In many of the upcoming district elections, Republicans would need to dig in and defend on the best of years. This time around, the Republican Establishment will find itself facing off against not just a resurgent Democratic Party, but an even more forceful anti-establishment wing within the GOP itself.
Even more worrisome, this anti-establishment wing won’t just be a grassroots organization akin to the early iterations of the Tea Party. The grassroots elements will almost certainly be present, but they’ll be backed by Steve Bannon, Breitbart, and big money donors. For McConnell and other GOP insiders, this threat could be even more grave than the Democratic opposition.
All of the negative and attack campaigning could leave the Republican Party deeply divided once it comes time to face off against Democrats.
Tough primary battles with Bannon-backed populists could drain the Republican Party of resources before they ever even reach the main election. Whoever makes it through the GOP primary may find himself or herself short on financial resources, having spent so much just to secure the Republican nomination. Democrats likely won’t face as draining of primary battles, with the party thus far showing a surprising ability to coalesce around candidates early on.
Further, all of the negative and attack campaigning could leave the Republican Party deeply divided once it comes time to face off against Democrats. There’s an old political saying: Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line. At its essence, Republican voters could traditionally be counted on to show up and vote for GOP candidates even if they weren’t their first choice. Democrats, on the other hand, often failed to vote for Democratic candidates that they hadn’t fallen in love with and supported in the primaries. This was seen last year in Hillary Clinton’s loss: a number of “Berniecrats” simple stayed home.
Now Republicans might find themselves divided, and if so, could they be ripe for conquering? It’s too early to say, but the 2018 election season should be a contentious one both during the primaries and the actual elections.
