India
70 years ago in August of 1947, Great Britain divided the Indian subcontinent. In the aftermath of World War II, Britain was weakened and no longer had the means to administer its empire. Combined with nationalistic sentiment in India, they quickly proposed independence and a partition of India between its Hindu majority that formed India and its Muslim minority that formed Pakistan. But the partition was incredibly violent. It led to almost 14 million displaced persons and up to 2 million deaths from ethnic conflict and reprisals. The bloody partition continues to fuel mistrust and anger between the two countries and provides a cautionary tale for those who think tribal politics and secession talk in America are good things.
California
Both sides seem to have some good arguments in favor of secession. California leaving would allow the liberals who control the state to better pursue liberal policies such as cap and trade, housing restrictions, the Paris Climate Accords, and unchecked immigration. Conservatives wouldn’t mind, because they would have a better chance of controlling the White House without having to worry about California’s 55 electoral votes. They also wouldn’t have to pay for or bail out California’s boondoggles, such as their underfunded pension system and disproportionate number of residents receiving benefits such as welfare and Medicaid.
Aftermath
As the case in India showed, the partition will not be clean. When the partition occurred, business did not continue as usual. Many of Pakistan’s middle class and skilled specialists were Hindu. They were forced to leave under threats of violence, and Pakistan’s—and to some extent, India’s—economy has never fully recovered. The middle class artisans lost the businesses they had created over many years. Pakistan lost the tax revenue and jobs from the businesses, and India gained a large number of suddenly impoverished refugees.
The better option would be to turn down the volume and rediscover a sense of civic pride, respect for opponents, and compromise
California is dominated by liberals, but they are concentrated in small geographic areas along the coast. There is a vast hinterland that is less populated but much bigger geographically that is overwhelmingly conservative and vote for Trump. The farmers in this region produce almost all of the country’s almonds, apricots, dates, figs, kiwi fruit, nectarines, olives, pistachios, prunes, and walnuts. It leads in the production of avocados, grapes, lemons, melons, peaches, plums, and strawberries. Only Florida produces more oranges. California is also the second largest producer of livestock behind Texas and leads the nation in dairy production.
But farmers have plenty to dislike about their government prior to even considering becoming its own country. For example, during the years of drought, farmers were given only a fraction of their water rights even as coastal elites pumped millions of gallons into the sea to protect fish habitats. When the rains returned, the farmers and those living in rural California towns discovered that state officials had chronically mismanaged the system of dams and levees, which promptly collapsed and flooded their fields and towns. Dislocated populations, disrupted food supply, and impoverished farmers would harm both California and the rest of the United States.
This is before we consider other matters such as the differences between northern and southern parts of the state and what to do with the extensive federal military bases and buildings. California was brought into the union in large part because of its deep water ports in San Diego and the Bay Area that are exceptionally well-suited for warships and trading vessels, and the remaining part of the United States will not abandon them.
With the vociferous arguments being made in the media, gridlocked politics in Washington, and even violence between the radicals on both sides, it is tempting to essentially agree to disagree and allow places like California to go their way. But history shows that the partition will not be very clean; in fact, it will be economically disruptive and likely lead to displaced persons and many deaths. The better option would be to turn down the volume and rediscover a sense of civic pride, respect for opponents, and compromise.
