“Since 2010, the North Koreans began fielding what the South Koreans call the KN06. These SAMs are more dangerous because they are much more advanced, and there are an unknown number of them.”
Over the weekend, the United States flew Rockwell International B-1B Lancer strategic bombers over international waters of the east coast of North Korea. This is the farthest north they have flown, and American officials intended to send a message to the North Koreans and act as a deterrent against their aggressive behavior. North Korea in turn responded that “they have every right to make countermeasures, including the right to shoot down United States strategic bombers, even when they are not inside the airspace border of our country.” The real question is, what are North Korea’s capabilities, and can they really do that?
North Korea’s military is a combination of a small number of top line fighters and anti-air guns with a good deal of antiquated material, but the threat can’t be dismissed out of hand. In 1968, the North Koreans shot down a reconnaissance aircraft, killing 31 airmen, and they seized the USS Pueblo. The crew was released later that year, but they kept the ship. And in 1994, they shot down a Kiowa helicopter.
Yet all of these incidents involved reconnaissance vessels. Bombers with fighter escorts launching from a carrier group with yet more resources are a much more difficult target. North Korea has some MIG 23 and 29 jets, but they are outclassed by American fighters and would only be useful if they catch a bomber alone. The bigger threat comes from the imported and indigenous surface-to-air missiles (SAMs).
North Korea employs a mix of old Soviet SAMs, including the S-75, S-125, S-200, and Kvadrat. While these aren’t the flashiest system, and they are old, they can still be surprisingly effective. Using the S-125, for example, the Serbians managed to shoot down an F-117 stealth bomber in 1999.
Since 2010, the North Koreans began fielding what the South Koreans call the KN06. These SAMs are more dangerous because they are much more advanced, and there are an unknown number of them. Like the Germans who invaded Russia to find out there were entire divisions they didn’t know about, American bombers might fly a combat mission only to encounter a hornet’s nest of resistance.
Even then, Americans shouldn’t overreact to the perceived threat. If America did strike North Korea, they would use their uniquely suited assets, such as the Ohio class missile subs, to launch hundreds of missiles in minutes that would overwhelm their missile batteries and the command and control needed to locate, identify, and launch missiles against US bombers.
If North Korea shot at American planes, the real danger would be to the already eroding stability. Trump made a speech at the UN that promised massive retaliation, and the two world leaders have exchanged insults since then. This might be the event that pushes Trump into military action with possibly dangerous results. Like most threats the United States faces, they should be seriously considered and prepared for. At the same time, this threat can reasonably be considered incredibly unlikely.
