It’s been nearly two months since Akayed Ullah tried to blow himself up with a pipe bomb and take a bunch of Manhattan commuters with him on December 6th. Nobody died, and the bomber seems to be just another fool to succumb to the call of radical Islam. There’s more to that story for sure, but it’s already one without legs.
It’s been over five months since James Alex Fields, a man who identified with Neo-Nazis (specifically, Vanguard America), plowed his car into a large crowd of counter-protesters at an Alt-Right protest in Charlottesville VA. One woman died, and many others were maimed for life. Fields, at least at first blush, seems to be just another fool to succumb to the call of radical nationalism. There’s much, much more to that story as well, but it doesn’t have much legs either, although, probably, more than Akayed’s because there is now hard data that show that White Supremacists are just as dangerous, or more dangerous, than radical Islamists.[i] [ii] [iii] [iv]
This article explores the radicalization process. How seemingly normal people, from all walks of life, can be changed enough to do unspeakable things. Radicalization does not prefer an ideology. Any ideology will do. Along those lines, there is little difference between these two young men. Both were radicalized to the most extreme, the point where they were willing to die, or spend the rest of their lives in prison, for the cause. And guess what, they followed nearly identical paths. And guess what else, we (the Intelligence Community and Law Enforcement) missed both by a mile.
How did they get that way, because no one is born with such hate? This piece will try to summarize the USGs attempts to identify, interpret, understand and quantify the process where normal people are essentially brainwashed into committing horrendous acts.
In 2011, I was part of a team of analysts from NCTC, FBI and DHS tasked with writing case studies of terror suspects that addressed what is now commonly referred to as homegrown violent extremism (HVE). The goal was to increase State and Local LE awareness of common patterns in the radicalization process so that they could be more effective at recognizing and addressing the problem in their own jurisdictions. Believe it or not, in the early 2000’s there wasn’t a lot to draw from academia on this phenomenon. In fact, the HVE phenomenon hadn’t been well recognized by then. It wasn’t until the London subway & bus attack in 2005 that HVEs became a well-established problem that needed addressing. Certainly, there was nothing of note to draw from as sophisticated as our understanding today.
By 2011 there were three models widely recognized by the US government.
NYPD 2007:
NYPD’s was the first in 2007. It is arguably the simplest of the models, but at the time, it was the best there was on the subject. It was a Godsend to us analysts trying to wrap our heads around what was happening at the time. Looking back, academically, it was too focused on Radical Islam, it was presented as a very linier progression, and it assumed violence at the end. [v] But man, was it good! Kudos to the authors and NYPD.
FBI 2009:
In 2009, the FBI published an excellent model with much more detail. It tried to be all inclusive, but still, primarily focused on religion as a motivator and maintained the linier progression to violence. It discussed vulnerabilities, stimuli, where & how recruitment might occur, training to develop the capability required to execute a plan, and suggests that not all those who are radicalized commit violence. [vi]
National Counter Terrorism Center (NCTC) 2011:
In 2011, at the time of our study, NCTC published its model of the radicalization process. I thought then, and still believe today, that it is the most inclusive, enlightened, and practical of the three. It can be applied to anyone from Islamic Radicals to White Supremacists to the Earth Liberation Front (ELF). Most importantly, it suggests that individuals can move back and forth from step to step within the process based upon catalysts and inhibitors. Catalysts being a charismatic leader, political events, etc. Inhibitors being strong family ties, intervention, strong rational friendships, simple logic, etc. [vii]
Nowadays, experts abound. Recent years have shown a significant increase in interest in the subject. Scores of academic publications now exist, and new PhDs are awarded every year. However, I believe the new models simply aren’t practical because they are mired in excruciating detail and permutations looking to cover every possible angle and avoid profiling.
Back in 2011, we did find commonalities that I believe are quite useful. Without arguing about the minutia, here are what I think are the most important steps in the radicalization process:
All of the subjects we studied — and this now includes Ullah and Fields — at some point experienced or exhibited the following:
- Trauma or a perceived injustice.
- Loneliness, a search for acceptance or a desire to belong.
- A connection with a cause takes place. Ideas begin to resonate within.
- The individual seeks exposure to the cause. Finding like minds becomes a joyous event.
- Indoctrination into the group begins. Ideas are reinforced over and over.
- The individual begins to identify with the group. Acceptance by the group becomes another joyous event.
- The individual seeks further reinforcement of more radical ideas.
- The individual completely embraces the cause and develops a willingness to help. This point does not necessarily develop into a willingness to commit violence. Some seek to help non-violently, with money, spreading literature, recruiting others to the cause, etc.
- Once a commitment to violence is reached, the individual seeks to develop their capability to inflict the violence (i.e. training in martial arts, gun clubs, paintball teams, survival training).
- At some point, the individual must come to accept the fact they may/will die by carrying out the attack, or at least, accept the consequences of their actions (i.e. significant prison time, if not life in prison, family break-up, etc.). This is particularly relevant for those who accept suicide as the option of choice. I can see myself joining a cause and fighting in a battle for that cause. But wearing a suicide vest, or driving a suicide bomb-laden truck into the front gate of a US Military Base? [viii] Now that’s a commitment to the cause! That stage in the process, viewed by someone who thinks they are sane (me), is frankly, amazing and incomprehensible. It’s a pretty fascinating subject.
For those of us who just want to watch the movie, the best movies I’ve seen to correctly portray the process on the alt-right Islamist side is “Syriana.” George Clooney is fabulous. And on the alt-right American side is “American History X.” Edward Norton is fabulous.
Below are indicators of a person caught up in this process. He/she might exhibit the following behaviors:
- Statements of real or perceived grievance.
- Progression or gravitation to radical beliefs.
- Behavioral changes become evident such as:
- An increase or decrease in the use of cigarettes, alcohol & drugs, gambling.
- Clothing changes, tattoos, beards, head shaving.
- Name changes, music preference, use of radical internet sites and literature.
- Changes in friendships and alienation from their former life.
As they progress farther down the path, one might note the following:
- Regular attendance at radical venues.
- Withdrawal from previous friends and family.
- Increased secrecy.
- Politicization of new beliefs.
- Unusual travel (foreign or domestic).
- Acquisition of weapons or other contraband.
- New interest in martial arts and/or other activity like wilderness hiking and paint-ball.
- Conducting reconnaissance of potential targets.
As the NTCT model and other studies suggest, this progression can be disrupted at any stage with a strong influential presence or event who/that advocates a different idea or approach. In both Fields’ and Ullah’s case, this did not happen.
Unfortunately, the Internet has spread and accelerated the radicalization process. Ideology, encouragement, propaganda and training are widely available:
al Qai’da ISIS White Supremacist Eco-terrorism
Both Ullah and Fields found solace, acceptance, inspiration and training on line. In Fields case, since he was such a loner, it is my opinion that most, if not all, of his radicalization was done on line. It seems Fields might have a little bit of an alibi as he has a documented history of mental issues and once told his high school teacher he was taking drugs to combat schizophrenia. [ix] Looking at photos from his home and while in Charlottesville, one gets the sense that he’s simply “not all there.” Only the cops, prosecutor and his attorney know for sure. Ullah on the other hand was “all in” and even encouraged his young, pregnant wife, to read and accept on-line radical Islam propaganda. [x]
As usual, neighbors in both cases either didn’t notice anything wrong, or, had some instinctual awareness that something wasn’t quite right. But neither were compelled to report it to the authorities. I can understand. When I lived in suburban DC-Maryland not too long ago, I once had a neighbor whose daughter married an Iranian Muslim. She began to wear the hijab. After a while, her brother and husband’s friends began working on something in their garage. They’d come at strange hours and worked well into the night. It was metallic and required welding. I was beginning to get worried (freaked out actually), but it turned out to be some sort of exotic set of shelves. Hey, at least I noticed!
I hope this piece brought you some new and useful information. Let’s hope you don’t have to use it. My intent is to dig deeper into both these cases and report back later. My instincts tell me there is much more going on.
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[i] https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3924852-White-Supremacist-Extremism-JIB.html
[ii] https://www.start.umd.edu/pubs/START_ECDB_IslamistFarRightHomicidesUS_Infographic_Feb2017.pdf
[iii] https://theintercept.com/2017/05/31/the-numbers-dont-lie-white-far-right-terrorists-pose-a-clear-danger-to-us-all/
[iv] https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/federal-government-has-long-ignored-white-supremacist-threats-critics-say/2017/09/02/bf2ed00c-8698-11e7-961d-2f373b3977ee_story.html?utm_term=.25ade9c7074b
[v] Silber, M., & Bhatt, A. (2007). Radicalization in the West: The homegrown threat. New York: New York Police Department Intelligence Division
[vi] https://archives.fbi.gov/archives/news/testimony/eight-years-after-9-11-confronting-the-terrorist-threat-to-the-homeland
[vii] https://www.iwp.edu/docLib/20140819_2011NCTCRadicalizationFramework.pdf
[viii] https://www.wired.com/2012/07/talibvid/
[ix] https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/trafficandcommuting/a-neo-nazis-rage-fueled-journey-to-charlottesville/2017/08/18/a7e881fa-8296-11e7-902a-2a9f2d808496_story.html?utm_term=.332fc0b3e2d3
[x] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nyc-subway-bomb-attack-suspect-akayed-ullah-faces-charges-from-hospital-bed/
