“The military strategist Edward Luttwak often discussed how victory can sometimes be the worst thing to happen to an army.”
The Republican candidate Karen Handell beat the Democrat Jon Ossoff during a special election in Georgia. This is a healthy boost for Republicans, as the Democratic candidate ran a disciplined campaign free of mistakes and designed to offer a positive alternative message to Trump. This was a district in which Trump underperformed Romney during the 2016 election, and he is even more unpopular now, yet the Republican still won. Republicans naturally feel a bit confident after winning all four of the special elections that were supposedly a decision about Trump. But there is danger in this victory as well that Republicans shouldn’t overlook.
The military strategist Edward Luttwak often discussed how victory can sometimes be the worst thing to happen to an army. That’s because all of the army’s habits, doctrines, and behavior become enshrined as genius, even if they hampered the war effort. In contrast, failure induces a good deal of soul-searching and empowers reformers within the military who can better rebuild.
Applied to Republicans, this means that with the victory, they automatically assume that what they do is working, even if it might not be. The seat won by Republicans Tuesday night was the same one held by Newt Gingrich and has been held by Republicans for over 40 years. Winning the seat by only four or five points sounds like a blowout compared to the expected loss, but it’s far lower than one would assume considering its reliably Red status.
There have been other special elections that end up being outliers. In 2010, the Republicans wanted to pick up the reliably Democratic seat vacated by the deceased Jack Murtha in Pennsylvania. It was a close toss-up that Republicans lost. Pundits at the time said that this signaled flaws in Republican tactics that would prevent them from regaining the majority. But a short time later, in the election of 2012, they won a resounding majority and have held it ever since.
Conventional wisdom is promoting the same idea in this election. Supposedly, the Democrats are pursuing failed tactics that are either too far to the left or not as enticing as a center right candidate. But Donald Trump continues to be unpopular. And if there isn’t significant legislation passed on healthcare, taxes, and the budget with a Republican president and Congress, they will have to face angry voters. The Republicans may also assume that Democrats will face a ceiling even with the combination of a tough district for Trump and a good candidate running a good campaign with lots of money.
The Republicans did win an important victory, and it’s always better than a loss. This might give Republicans the confidence they need to pass important legislation. But it might give them a false sense of security and bolster wrong ideas about what America wants and the popularity of the Republican party. The Republicans should get working on their agenda before they have to find out.
