“In short, German leaders view the EU as its natural environment, and the one it needs in order to thrive.”
In a bleak vision of the future, the German defense ministry recently released a study into various scenarios of European development over the next 20 years.
The study released to the German outlet Der Spiegel is entitled “Strategic Perspective 2040” and contains a depiction of a very chaotic future in Europe.
According to the study, this worst case scenario would be instigated as more and more states begin to “leave the community” of the European Union, and the continental effort of promoting the EU would be “largely abandoned.” The disjointedness would in turn pit countries against each other over conflicting interests, creating new blocs of nations, and likely pull many nations over to the “Eastern faction,” a veiled reference to Russia and its allies.
This grim vision—of several possible scenarios contained in the Strategic Perspective—is of course the worst case the German government sees resulting from Britain’s pull-out from the EU. It expresses the fear German leaders have that Brexit will begin a chain reaction that will unravel the Union.
It is not surprising that Germany harbors these fears.
Germany views the union of European nations from a unique perspective. This is due to a number of reasons. First of all, as a state whose economy is based heavily on manufacturing, especially in the mechanical sector, Germany requires a large, hungry market to consume its national product. The trade policies that govern trade in member countries of the EU are highly beneficial to Germany in this regard. Thus the prospect of this institution breaking apart is viewed with tremendous fear.
It is not surprising that Germany harbors these fears.
Seen by many as the most stable country on the continent from both a social and economic perspective, Germany has often taken a sort of “leadership role” in continental affairs. For this reason, Germany has extended itself to take on many of the real or imagined responsibilities it considers to have fallen on the shoulders of Europe. This includes taking initiative on a range of issues from refugee acceptance to bailing out floundering fellow EU nations.
In short, German leaders view the EU as its natural environment, and the one it needs in order to thrive.
It would be one thing if this was just an academic assessment by researchers in Germany’s defense ministry. However, reports have indicated that actual military plans will be put into development to help prepare for these scenarios.
It would be ironic if such plans perpetuate the very reality they were implemented to prevent. Creating an air of reactionism and military build-up may very well end up pushing more nations away from the EU bloc.
Interestingly, the German report was released shortly before the EU took an important step toward creating a unified European army. Earlier this week in Brussels, 23 of the 28 member countries signed on to a program of joint military investment in equipment and research for the purposes of jointly developing European military abilities and making them available for coordinated operations.
This is certainly a great show of European solidarity. But the idea of a united army of Europe has been a subject of controversy for a long time on the continent. Like Germany’s plans to prepare for a chaotic Europe, a rush to bolster unity via military development may backfire by alienating the growing numbers in Europe already wary of the central EU government over-asserting itself.
