“China’s rise over the past decade is undeniable, even to the most stubborn champions of American dominance in the world.”
Last week, I attended a conversation between retired general David Petraeus and political scientist, professor, and author Graham Allison. They spoke at the 92Y Cultural Institution and Community Center on Manhattan’s Upper East Side about Allison’s new book, Destined For War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’ Trap? Their conversation was both stimulating and concerning, as I left that night with a new concern for where our relations are heading with the up-and-coming economic powerhouse that is China.
China’s rise over the past decade is undeniable, even to the most stubborn champions of American dominance in the world. They are now the largest economy in the world, are flexing their military and strategic might in the Pacific, and are positioned to challenge the United States as a superpower. This emergence is all the more concerning as one begins to understand Thucydides’ Trap, an ancient Greek metaphor for the dynamics of a rising power threatening to displace a ruling power.
Historically, this dynamic has ended badly, with 12 of 16 cases examined over the last 500 years leading to a war between the newcomer and the sitting power. Thucydides’ Trap advises us that typically inconsequential incidents and events that would have little to no impact on relations between two powers can lead to conflict due to unmanageable consequences.
From a military perspective, things do not look great. There has been considerable flexing of military might in the East and South China Seas in recent years by both sides. Intercepts of US aircraft by Chinese fighters have occurred with some regularity, and China has warned the US not to “challenge Chinese sovereignty in the South China Sea.” US naval presence in the area has been increased to levels unseen in recent decades. The US has responded to Chinese construction of new bases and airfields with a show of force that has included aircraft carriers, submarines, and fighter jets.
War, however, is not inevitable. Four of the 16 cases examined by Graham Allison did not end in conflict, and there is considerable hope that the United States and China will not find themselves at war in the coming years. The feeling is that relations between the US and China have been thawing as of late.
For one thing, President Donald Trump appears to have developed a rather cordial relationship with Chinese president Xi Jinping. In fact, relations between the United States and China have not been this good in some time. Jinping needs stability at home as he prepares for the Communist Party’s National Congress in November 2017. Trump has publicly softened his stance on trade with China because he appears to like President Jinping. Both countries need some stability in their relationships right now. The US depends on cheap Chinese imports, and the US is the top destination for China’s exports.
Even China’s relationship with North Korea has been strained. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has lashed out at China for “insincerity and betrayal” and has accused China of violating North Korea’s rights. This all may very well be part of President Trump’s strategy for dealing with North Korea. China is one of only a few allies North Korea has and is by far the most powerful.
China might be the key to dealing with North Korea, and President Trump may have promised China an easier ride on trade if China is willing to get tougher in dealing with North Korea. Diplomacy is the most critical factor in determining where the US-China relationship is headed. If recent weeks are any indication, war could certainly be avoided.
