According to an anonymous inside source, President Donald Trump is worried that Democrats could seek impeachment. Reportedly, President Trump now sees impeachment as a “real possibility,” and aides within the Trump administration believe that campaign finance violations committed by attorney Michael Cohen might make things sticky.
As for being impeached, President Trump likely won’t be booted from office as Republicans remain in control of the Senate. Under the impeachment process, the House must first vote to impeach the president. Only a simple majority is needed in the House. Then, the “case” is referred to the Senate, which can then examine any wrongdoing or crime committed by the president. If the president is found “guilty,” he/she could then be booted out of office.
Democrats could try to impeach the president but it’d be a shallow political move as Senate Republicans will likely stand with Trump. In order to impeach the president in the Senate, a two-thirds majority is needed. This means Democrats would need to flip 19 Republicans, which isn’t likely to happen.
Inside sources indicate that President Trump largely agrees with the above analysis. He might be impeached by the House but it’s unlikely that the Senate will move to impeach him. However, it’s unlikely that the House will move against the president.
So why won’t Congressional Democrats try to impeach President Trump? If House Democrats moved to impeach the president, it’d be a shallow political stunt and one more likely to backfire than to score any political points. Most Democrats already strongly opposed President Trump. Impeachment isn’t likely to rally the Democrat base but, instead, would fire up Trump’s base. As 2020 nears, Democrats need to demoralize Trump’s supporters, not rile them up.
Even if Democrats could flip enough Republicans in the Senate, it’s unlikely they’d do so. If Trump was booted from office, Mike Pence would become president. He’d likely gain the support of the vast majority of Trump’s base in such a situation and would be able to pardon the president of any federal crimes.
On his own, Vice President Pence might not make as formidable of a candidate in 2020 as Trump would. However, the impeachment process would likely “transfer” the support Trump enjoys to Pence. For now, Pence also has less “baggage” than President Trump and has maintained a low profile. This will make him less vulnerable to criticisms and political attacks.
Given all of the above, Democrats face better prospects facing off against President Trump than against would-be candidate Mike Pence. At the end of the day, politics and elections will likely “trump” any legal issues, especially given how close the 2020 race is.
Still, Trump does have reason to lose sleep. It appears that the Mueller investigation has uncovered some potentially impeachable offenses. Trump’s former lawyer Michael Cohen has flipped on the president and allegedly possesses evidence that Trump committed impeachable offenses.
If Democrats take over the White House in 2020, however, Trump may face criminal charges once he is out of office. This assumes wrongdoing, of course. Once Trump is removed from the White House, the impeachment process will be null and void. Charges could simply be brought against Trump in the courts.
