Long-time observers of Africa were hopeful when they first saw reports of a military takeover in Harare, Zimbabwe’s capital city. After all, sometimes a coup can be a precursor to reform, as the new government makes bargains with world powers to gain recognition of its new dominance. Writing in The Atlantic, a former State Department Africa official and the head of a prestigious NGO outlined the best case:
“A more optimistic scenario is that the military could, under pressure from neighbors and the international community, quickly step aside and introduce an inclusive transitional authority ahead of new elections next year. That might restore faith in democracy and encourage Zimbabwe’s educated diaspora to return to help to rebuild.”
Unfortunately, that is probably the least likely outcome of the current crisis. Rather, this is just a battle among party factions over succession to the president – some may say a battle among thieves for control of a criminal enterprise masquerading as a government. A quick review of events may be helpful.
The president of Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe, has been in office since the country was created in 1980. He is now in his nineties, and expectations that he will not live much longer are giving rise to a bitter succession struggle. The two most likely candidates to succeed him have been Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa and First Lady Grace Mugabe. Mnangagwa was Minister of State Security and Minister of Justice in the early days of independence, and has been Vice President for the past several years.
An army spokesman insisted that the action was not a coup, but a move to protect the President from the criminal elements surrounding him.
Grace Mugabe, known as “Gucci Grace” for her lavish spending and lifestyle, has been married to the President for 21 years and is 41 years his junior. She had had an affair with him while she was a typist in the presidential palace, but since her marriage has risen through the ranks of the ruling party, the Zimbabwe African National Union – Patriotic Front (ZANU–PF). She is known for her ability to destroy political opponents to either the president or herself.
On November 4th, Grace attacked the Vice President in a speech, saying that she has evidence that he tried to wrest power from President Mugabe all the way back in 1980. Several days later he was fired, accused of plotting a coup. This was a victory for Grace, and Mnangagwa fled to South Africa, saying he feared for his life.
As a former Minister of State Security and Minister of Defense, however, Mnangagwa is considered a close ally of the military and security services, and they came quickly to his rescue. General Constantino Chiwenga, army chief of staff, said Monday that the military would act quickly to save the revolution and end the intra-party strife. By Tuesday evening, army tanks had entered the city and seized the broadcast facilities and surrounded the presidential palace. An army spokesman, Major General Sibusiso Moyo, insisted that the action was not a coup, but a move to protect the President from the criminal elements surrounding him.
Ominously, Chiwenga met Chinese Defence Minister Chang Wanquan in Beijing on Friday, where Chang expressed a willingness to promote relations with Zimbabwe, a move that some are interpreting as a signal that China may have given advance approval of the army’s action.
The picture that is forming as new reports come in shows Vice President Mnangagwa and General Chiwenga triumphant, and Grace Mugabe cut off from any hope of power. But Mnangagwa is not likely to bring rapid improvement to Zimbabwe. The UN described him in a 2001 report as “the architect of the commercial activities of Zanu-PF,” a statement seen as a reference to Zimbabwe’s military intervention in the Congo civil wars, and subsequent looting of diamonds, gold and other mineral resources. He is described as cruel, and the BBC has detailed atrocities that were carried out while he headed the State Security apparatus.
South African President Jacob Zuma reported that he spoke by telephone with President Mugabe today, and that Mugabe said he is well and doing fine. There is no report of Grace Mugabe’s welfare or whereabouts. As long as the Vice President and the military continue to insist that their action does not constitute a coup, and as long as Mugabe himself is not asking for help, it is likely that regional powers will recognize Mnangagwa’s position. The corruption and kleptocracy will continue, and the people of Zimbabwe and the region will have to wait for another chance at liberty and prosperity.
