The Islamic State has been largely crushed in Syria and Iraq, but battle-hardened and armed jihadists are flowing to the Khorasan Province in Afghanistan, The Cipher Brief reports.
According to the report, the weak central government and harsh terrain provides not only an opportunity to set up shop but cover from U.S. and Afghan forces. It is also attracting new recruits as the Islamic State may have lost territory, but it has responded with determined resistance by “relocating.”
ISIS in Afghanistan or ISIS Khorasan Province (ISKP) first emerged along the porous Afghan-Pakistan border raising questions as to whether or not this played any role in the recent Trump administration cuts to Pakistan due to its alleged corruption and even harboring of terrorists.
Estimates of the official numbers of ISKP range from just under a thousand according to U.S. statistics to more than 10,000 according to Russian ones.
However, while the Islamic State may have reacquired at least a temporary territorial safe haven for now, it raises interesting questions to not only the counterterrorism strategy involving boots on the ground and counterinsurgency operations themselves but also to what extent does the success of such efforts hinge on foreign governments’ own capabilities and enthusiasm for the job.
