President Donald Trump shook up geopolitics yet again this weekend. On Saturday, President Trump suggested that America might ditch the arms treaty owing to alleged Russian transgressions. Trump argued: “We’re the ones that have stayed in the agreement and we’ve honored the agreement. But Russia has not, unfortunately, honored the agreement. So we’re going to terminate the agreement. We’re gonna pull out.”
If Trump makes good on his threat, the United States may soon be developing and advancing intermediate nuclear weapons for the first time in decades. Signed in 1987, the Intermedia-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty called for both countries to eliminate nuclear-armed ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges between 300 and 3,400 miles. The intent was to provide extra security to Europe.
Trump was not the first person to allege that Russia is violating the agreement. The Obama administration likewise made claims, and earlier this month NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said he was “Concerned about Russia’s lack of respect for its international commitments, including the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, the INF Treaty.”
The Defense Department echoed these claims this past February in its Nuclear Posture Review, claiming that Russia was in violation of INF arms controls. One might wonder that if Russia is in violation, hasn’t the treaty itself already been de facto disregarded. Why should the United States continue to honor an agreement if the other party isn’t?
That’s the angle President Trump is taking and Russia is not happy about it. Russia has already fired back with Russian officials claiming that they would be forced to take action if the U.S. withdrew from the agreement. The INF has eliminated thousands of nuclear missiles, but given Russian and American rhetoric, it looks like the nuclear arms race may soon be heating up.
For Russia and the United States, their mutually assured self-destruction won’t change much if both countries expand their nuclear arsenals to include intermediary nuclear missiles. Europe, on the other hand, will once again find itself in the crosshairs.
