Welcome to our live briefing on the massive buildup of Russian military forces near Ukraine’s border, and the diplomatic efforts under way to prevent a possible invasion by Moscow.
Here’s an overview — updated throughout the day– of what we know, and don’t know, about the standoff between Moscow and Kyiv and threats of a further Russian move against its western neighbor.
Have a question about the crisis? Let us know by e-mailing us at [email protected]. Your questions will inform our future reporting.
What Are The Latest Developments?
- U.S. President Joe Biden has declared “total” unity among Western powers after a call with European leaders on deterring Russia from invading Ukraine. The 80-minute call took place on January 24 amid growing concern that Russia could soon make a military move into Ukraine and after the Pentagon said 8,500 U.S. troops were put on standby for possible deployment to NATO countries.
- Latvia’s defense minister says no country in the West wants a conflict with Russia, but that Ukraine has a right to defend itself as fellow NATO Baltic states send assistance to Kyiv. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania announced last week they would provide defensive aid to Ukraine, including anti-armor and antiaircraft missiles after the United States approved the transfer of the U.S. supplied weapons.
- Britain and the United States have announced the departure of some embassy staff and dependents from Ukraine in a move that Kyiv has called “premature” following several rounds of inconclusive diplomatic talks between Washington and Moscow prompted by Russia’s build up of tens of thousands of troops near the border with its western neighbor.
- Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has urged Western governments to affirm Ukraine’s status as “an important part of the West” as it faces Russian military threats. In an interview with RFE/RL, Kuleba expressed concern that some European countries are prioritizing their relations with Moscow over their solidarity with Ukraine.
Could Ukraine Survive A Russian Onslaught?
By all accounts, Ukraine’s armed forces are qualitatively better than they were seven years ago, when the military’s sorry shape, battered by years of neglect, underfunding, and corruption, was on display against Russia-backed fighters in the Donbas.
“Russia will find them a determined, robust, and enduring army, whatever Putin chooses to do,” said Glen Grant, a retired British Army artillery officer who served as an adviser to the Ukrainian military.
“Our army has been systematically destroyed and disarmed, and its best personnel dismissed,” Deputy Defense Minister Petro Mehed told reporters in April 2014. But since that time, the Ukrainian military has improved, though experts disagree how broad and deep the improvements are, and how much is possible when a country is still technically at war.
Read more of our story by Mike Eckel here.
What Are The Ukrainian Military’s Strengths?
In the event of an invasion, Ukraine’s military would be greatly outnumbered, and some Western experts believe Kyiv’s forces could be quickly overwhelmed. But Ukrainian analysts point to some resources that make Ukraine a stronger power than it might appear.
Infographic: Comparing Ukraine And Russia’s Military Might
A report by Global Firepower shows the disparities in military power between Ukraine and Russia. It’s not pretty. See it in full here.
Who Are The Digital Sleuths Exposing Russia’s Military Buildup?
Unlike in decades past, the surveillance tools available today make it impossible for a modern army like Russia’s to stage a major logistical operation without alerting the global community to it. And often, the alarm bells are rung by a network of dedicated sleuths who are first to unearth evidence on the ground. Read our story here.
‘They’re Going To Ukraine’: Social Media Chatter Sheds Light On Russia’s Military Mobilization
Dozens of social media posts show a trail of military personnel and units being shipped across Russia to regions near Ukraine, an investigation by RFE/RL’s Russian Service and the Conflict Intelligence Team has found. Read Mark Krutov’s story here.
What Do Ukrainians Living Close To The Russian Border Think?
Want To Know More About The Big Picture?
- Did the West really promise Moscow that NATO would not expand?’ Well, it’s complicated. Some myths go back millennia. This myth, if it is one, goes back to 1990 — and just over three decades later, it continues to form a central grievance in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s testy narrative about Moscow’s ties with the West. Read Mike Eckel’s story here.
- What is SWIFT and what happens if Russia is cut off from it? The United States is reportedly considering cutting off Russia from the most widely used electronic payment messaging system in the world. Is it the “nuclear option” some claim it to be? Read the story by Todd Prince here.
- Are Ukraine’s bomb shelters ready for war? A recent tour of shelters in Kyiv attracted great interest among journalists. But at one command bunker, the telephones were not working, while another had been taken over by a tattoo parlor. Many people had no idea where the shelters were. Watch the video by Borys Sachalko, Current Time, and Ray Furlong here.
