OpsLens

Mattis Warns of Increasing Threat from North Korea – History Says We Shouldn’t Accept the New Normal

“While North Korea might seem like old news, and the tension seems like a new normal, American diligence is required.”

This Saturday, Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis visited South Korea and inspected the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). After the inspection, he said that “North Korea has accelerated the threat that it poses to its neighbors and the world through its illegal and unnecessary missile and nuclear weapons programs.” He emphasized that while diplomacy was the preferred course, the situation has taken on a new sense of urgency, and that the United States would use overwhelming force in responding to North Korean nuclear attacks. South Korean politicians continue to call for more defense, including nuclear powered submarines and even the placement of tactical nuclear weapons on the peninsula.

This news might not sound very news worthy or interesting. OpsLens experts have been describing the tension that has existed in the area for months. North Korea continues to test missiles by shooting them over US allies, and the war of words with President Trump continues. The US responded to these provocations by sending additional forces to the region, including submarines that offer first strike capability, and there are now an unprecedented three carriers in the Pacific. This all seems like a new normal that shouldn’t cause concern.

But a study of history and surprise attacks offers a strong word of caution. World War II alone offers two examples. The United States had friction with Japan for years before the war. After Japan’s aggressive stance in Manchuria, their war in China, and the atrocities they committed throughout the region, the United States denied oil imports that fueled Japan’s war machine. Several times US leaders alerted the navy in the Pacific and the fleet at Pearl Harbor to expect an imminent attack. In early December of that year, intelligence officials even received reports that precisely detailed the impending Japanese attack.

But the volumes that intelligence services received at the time led to a good deal of chaff and useless intel that obscured the accurate intelligence. Combined with numerous false alarms, this made the Pearl Harbor attack a stunning surprise from Japanese forces and a day that lives in infamy for Americans.

A year earlier the French experienced a devastating surprise attack from the Germans. France and England declared war on Germany when they invaded Poland in fall of 1939. During the winter, so little happened between the belligerents that they called this period the “phony war.” By the following fall, the Germans unleashed the devastating Blitz against Britain and the French saw their neighbors relentlessly attacked.

The Germans delayed their invasion of France several times while the high command tinkered with the details. Thus, when the Germans were ready to invade, there had been so many false starts that most of the units needed for the attack were already in place. The French misread the relatively small troop movements as insignificant and six weeks later Paris fell.

These examples teach an important lesson that can and should be applied to our current situation. While North Korea might seem like old news, and the tension seems like a new normal, American diligence is required. The new normal breeds a complacency that might cause analysts and the public to misread, understate, or even ignore signs that an attack is imminent. Every missile launch, threat, and troop movement matters, and the citizens, leaders, and service men and women need to stay alert.