As much news has been overshadowed this week by President Trump’s exploits in Finland, if I may, I’d like to remind you of a small kerfuffle going on in regards to our closest ally. No, not Russia. The present British government could drastically change in the next two weeks and an American, well…at least American-born, Tory politician could be, if the stars align, the agent and beneficiary of it.
For those who aren’t ardent Anglophiles like me (I named my eldest son Winston, after Churchill), let me explain a bit. The British parliamentary system would be as if there was no real Senate or president in the United States. The government would be only comprised of members of the House and Paul Ryan, elected by his colleagues to lead them there, would be the Prime Minister. Government departments would be run by fellow GOP House members and national elections would be determined by which party elected the most members of Congress. Are you with me? Good. There will be a quiz.
Though, the Prime Minister would be de jure, not de facto, responsible to the sovereign who, for sake of convenience, we will refer to as David I of the House of Annapolis, by the Grace of Kelly, King of the American Realm and Liege Lord of…well, you get the drift.
However, if enough of PM Ryan’s fellow GOP members thought he was doing a slapdash job, then 15 percent of them could write a letter to their Caucus Chair and Ryan would have to stand for election. An election he could very well lose. The chances of him losing increase if one of those members of Congress, say, Mark Meadows, whom he appointed to run one of those departments, bails on him over an important issue.
That member’s resignation from the government could be the spark that ignites the 15 percent letters and the subsequent leadership fight. There is a lot of skullduggery, but much of the process is quite open. Like a knife in the front, not the back.
When the leadership race is truly on after the Caucus Chair gets the 15 percent letters, Ryan would get an up or down vote from GOP members. If he wins, game over for the rebels. If he doesn’t get a majority he has to resign and can’t run in the upcoming vote. Then a bunch of GOP members of Congress would stand for PM. Only GOP members vote. Massive amounts of horsetrading are done. The candidates are weeded out round by round, lots of very personal politics happen here, until one has a majority and is the new PM and GOP leader.
Well, substitute British PM Theresa May for Ryan and American-born former London mayor and former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson for Meadows, and that is the situation on the ground in the British parliament today. The subject Boris bailed on Theresa over? Brexit.
(Credit: Pixabay/stux)
The backstory is too long to go into there. So I will assume you know what Brexit is and that it’s in its final stages of negotiation with the EU. May, who opposed Brexit during the referendum over it, is the putative leader of a pro-Brexit government. It would be like electing Donald Trump and having the House install liberal Republican Susan Collins of Maine as Prime Minister anyway.
May wants, naturally given her opposition to Brexit, a soft exit from the EU that would retain some EU control over the UK. Johnson wants a hard Brexit and as much independence from the EU as is possible. There are both Brexiteers and Remainers, those who want to somehow remain in the EU, in the Tory/Conservative Party. But the Brexiteers have a clear majority. Such a majority that they made the hapless May adopt four hard Brexit amendments to her Brexit plan. The Remainers are furious.
They are not the only players in this real life House of Cards.
There’s David Davis, former Brexit Minister who resigned from the government but did it as a stalking horse for Johnson. There’s my personal favorite Jacob Rees-Mogg, who is an unabashedly posh papist and leads the European Research Group, a hard Brexit parliamentary group in the Tory Party. There’s the resident Iago, Michael Gove, who stabbed Johnson in the back during the last leadership fight and who will sell his benighted soul to the highest bidder. He skulks in the shadows and supports May, for now.
Throughout all this, Good King David is ensconced at Balmoral with fine cigars, competent courtesans, and enough scotch to float a dreadnought.
And of course there is the other major political party, Labour. This lot makes our most lefty Democrats look like The Federalist Society. Their leader is an old commie anti-Semite, Jeremy Corbyn, who was elected Labour leader in a party practical joke gone horribly wrong.
Now, a week ago, right before the Trump visit, May looked not long for this political world. But she gained time, and stopped Johnson momentum, by stalling everything during the Trump visit. She then, referenced above, gave Brexiteers some serious concessions. That got them to ask themselves, “With our party not doing well in the polls right now, why would we want a public bloodletting when May is giving us a lot of what we want anyway?” Rumor also has it that the rebels do not have the 15 percent yet, 48 votes out of 316, to start the fight.
Leadership challenges are also about perception. When the Tories kicked out Margaret Thatcher in a leadership fight in 1990, she actually won the first round. But not by enough to be convincing, hence the perception factor. She resigned and John Major became the new PM.
There we stand in the wee hours of Thursday. Likely scenario?
The United Kingdom’s former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson. (Credit: Facebook/The Nation Thailand News)
Johnson lost vital momentum and was outplayed by May on the concessions to Rees-Mogg and a hard Brexit. Boris thrusted and she successfully parried. His resignation speech, where he pulled his punches, proved that.
The Tories don’t have to go to the polls for a national election for another four years. She won, barely, last year and they are designed as five-year terms. The Tories are currently down in the polls and can’t take the chance of government instability that could trigger a no-confidence vote, a whole other story, and a national election which they might lose.
Ergo, Theresa is probably safe for now and Boris must again sheathe his dagger to fight another day, perhaps soonish. The next time he should access his less civil American birthplace and bring a metaphorical gun to this knife fight.
In the final sense, it tends to settle matters.
