Like me, no doubt, you’ve read recent polling data that shows Biden or even other Dems beating the president soundly in some states and nationally.
Speaking as a former political pollster, I tell you, don’t believe any of them for several reasons:
- It’s Too Early. The relatively small numbers of swing voters who decide elections these days vote like they buy gum right before they check out at the grocery store. It’s a point-of-sale action taken close to the end of the election cycle. Real numbers start showing up after the first one-on-one GOP/Dem debate. No way to predict that data with any accuracy now. Also, factors like impossible to foresee news events and even the weather on Election Day play a part in the outcome. The Dems and their media pals know this. But they give big credence to these numbers anyway to try and cause…
- The Bandwagon Effect: They figure if they falsely repeat the president is down it will cause their own people to smell blood and work harder and demoralize the opposition. Though it can backfire and cause complacency in the alleged frontrunner, as it did with Hillary, and light a fire under the underdog, as it did with Trump and the Deplorables. It’s manufactured momentum. The smug media and the Dems did not learn their lesson from Brexit and the 2016 presidential election when most of their prognostications were wrong. Hence the hilarity we all had election night watching their whining and tears. To try and forestall another bad night they are…
- Blatantly Rigging the Polls: Say you want a certain response from a pollster. In this case, a Dem pollster. Well, this pollster has done thousands of other surveys. In those surveys they record the answers of people to questions that tell the pollsters, or lets them surmise, the way those people will vote, i.e., young single female pro-abortion supporters are likely Dem voters. It can be done individually or by region or locale. So to get the answer the client wants the pollster just goes back to the right number of people who they know will answer the proper way. Then the numbers are publicly released to the media lapdogs for the desired effect. As opposed to…
- Internal Polls: When you hear, as we did this weekend, that ABC got a hold of Trump’s internal polling, know you’re being manipulated because either the source was lying to make themselves seem important, the numbers are intentionally leaked by the Trump campaign for their own purposes, or the whole thing was made up by the media to make the Trump people go on a fruitless mole hunt for the Dem/media leaker. There is massive operational security and very limited access to internal polling. The chances of that being compromised by the press are also very limited.
There are still more reasons but you get the drift. These early numbers are not valid reflections of public sentiment. They are psychological operations played by both sides.
Because they know the most valid presidential poll, especially in these days of a polarized electorate, is the last presidential election updated with the current general mood of the public related to peace and prosperity
And that currently favors the president. In November 2020?
Who knows?
