The West has voiced skepticism about Moscow’s announcement that it would voluntarily reduce some military activity in Ukraine amid negotiations with Kyiv, while President Volodymyr Zelenskiy warned that Ukrainians “are not naive” as fighting continued to rage around Mariupol and other hot spots.
British military intelligence said on March 30 that Russian contingents that suffered heavy losses on the battlefield had been forced to return home and to neighboring Belarus to reorganize and resupply.
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“Such activity is placing further pressure on Russia’s already strained logistics and demonstrates the difficulties Russia is having reorganizing its units in forward areas within Ukraine,” Britain’s Ministry of Defense said.
Russia is likely to continue to compensate for its reduced ground maneuver capability through mass artillery and missile strikes, the ministry added, a day after Moscow and Kyiv appeared to make progress in their first face-to-face talks in more than two weeks.
Delegations from the two sides held talks in Istanbul on March 29 as Russia, more than a month into its unprovoked invasion, continued to encounter stiff resistance from Ukrainian forces, which made gains in some areas by retaking ground on the outskirts of the capital.
Russian Deputy Defense Minister Aleksandr Fomin told reporters in Moscow that a decision was made to “radically reduce military activity” near Kyiv and the northern city of Chernihiv in order to increase mutual trust.
For its part, Ukraine proposed not to join military alliances or host foreign troops as long as it had outside security guarantees and as long as Russia did not stand in the way of the country joining the European Union.
Ukrainian negotiator Mykhaylo Podolyak said on Twitter that unconditional security guarantees for Ukraine, a cease-fire, and humanitarian convoys were among the topics discussed during the “difficult negotiations for peace in our country.”
The fate of the eastern regions where Russia-backed separatists have battled Ukrainian forces since 2014 would be set aside to be discussed by the Ukrainian and Russian leaders, with any peace deal requiring a referendum in Ukraine, Podolyak said.
Russian lead negotiator Vladimir Medinsky said Russia’s delegation would study and present the proposals to President Vladimir Putin.
“We still have a long way to go” to prepare a peace agreement, Medinsky told TASS.
Zelenskiy voiced caution about Russia’s promises.
“Ukrainians are not naive people,” he said late on March 29.
“Ukrainians have already learned during these 34 days of invasion, and over the past eight years of the war in the Donbas, that the only thing they can trust is a concrete result.”
The Ukrainian military, meanwhile, warned that the Russian pledge probably facilitates a rotation of individual units and aims to mislead.
“There are indications that the Russian forces are regrouping to focus their efforts on eastern Ukraine,” the Ukrainian general staff said in a statement late March 29.
“At the same time, the so-called ‘withdrawal of troops’ is most likely a rotation of individual units and is aimed at misleading the Ukrainian military leadership” by creating the appearance that the Russians have made the decision not to try to encircle Kyiv.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and U.S. President Joe Biden also expressed skepticism and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Washington is focused on Russia’s actions, not its words.
“What Russia is doing is the continued brutalization of Ukraine and its people, and that continues as we speak,” said Blinken, who is on a tour of the Middle East and spoke at a news conference in Morocco.
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said Russia is only “repositioning” its forces near Kyiv not withdrawing them.
“It does not mean the threat to Kyiv is over,” Kirby said. “They can still inflict massive brutality on the country, including on Kyiv.” He said Russian air strikes against Kyiv continued.
“We’re not prepared to call this a retreat or even a withdrawal,” he said. “We think that what they probably have in mind is a repositioning to prioritize elsewhere.”
Thousands of civilians in the southern port city of Mariupol continue to be trapped under repeated shelling and air strikes by Russian forces.
Mariupol has been one of the main focal points of fighting since the start of the invasion more than a month ago. The situation in the city, which numbered some 400,000 people before the war, has been described as “apocalyptic.”
The head of the UN human rights mission in Ukraine told Reuters that thousands of civilians may have died in the city since bombing began.
“We do think that there could be thousands of deaths, of civilian casualties, in Mariupol,” Matilda Bogner said. The mission did not have a precise estimate but was working to gather more information, she added.
The fierce resistance put up by Ukraine took Russia by surprise, according to NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoana, as has the cohesiveness of the West’s response.
“I would say that, after one month, [Russian President Vladimir] Putin is far from the objectives of his initial campaign,” Geoana told Current Time in an interview.
Zelenskiy is due to address Australia’s parliament by video on the evening of March 31.
Australia has supplied defense equipment and humanitarian supplies to Ukraine, and imposed sanctions on hundreds of Russian individuals and entities. It has also slapped a ban on exports of alumina and aluminum ores, including bauxite, to Russia.
