Last week, Josh Holt arrived home in Salt Lake City after two years of captivity in Venezuela. Similar to the returned Americans from North Korea, this has been seen by many as an example of Trump’s diplomacy efficacy. But the freed American leaves behind a country that continues its death spiral. I wrote last year that the country would be the scene of the next revolution and the violence thus far this year is trending in that direction.
A quick summary for anyone who isn’t up to date: since 2000 when left-wing Hugo Chavez took office, despite rather generous oil wealth, Chavez and his successor Maduro have nationalized the industry, leading to an exodus of talent and production issues. Price controls and subsidies in Venezuelan currency have led to runaway inflation. Recently, Maduro instituted forced labor in the farming industries. The descent into a socialist paradise has resulted in black markets, massive immigration, and increasing crime. The massive influx of refugees, 4 million in the last 4 years, overwhelmed neighboring countries, and makes it likely that people will turn their weapons on the government.
This year, gangs of children have fought for control of prime dumpster areas near restaurants and grocery stores hoping to find food. Ruinous inflation has resulted in experienced professionals receiving pay checks that can’t pay for a dozen eggs. Venezuelans often cross the border to find jobs in Brazil, and to receive emergency medical care in Colombia. The state of health care in Venezuela today is comparable to that of the poorest nations in the world. Strapped for cash and facing dropping oil prices, the Maduro government has put strict limits on importing food, basic goods, and medicine.
In spite of all this, Maduro still won a new six-year term in a May 20 election. He disqualified most of his opponents and many others boycotted the election because it seemed like another unjustified power grab. This is why his power remains fragile. He has trusted many of his leading generals to operate the failed businesses. They might be able to show marginal improvement by instilling a sense of military discipline to the operation. But Venezuela is ranked as one of the most corrupt countries in the world, which includes the military. Historically, military commanders with economic and military power often become semi-independent warlords, and if this happens these commanders will likely oust or ignore Maduro.
On the street level, the increasing amount of gangs and unpaid police officers form dangerous conditions that also undermine his power. The police often share the concerns of protestors because hyperinflation has reduced their pay, their government jobs can’t help them get health care and, in many cases, food for their families.
Eventually the citizens, particularly those in places of power like the police, will stop obeying his commands. The gangs will swell in size and face less resistance and even tacit and active support from average citizens who have the same hunger pains. The increasingly relied upon and independent military leaders will be less willing to obey and support Maduro. The only question is how bad things will get for the average people before Maduro is removed and effective reforms are introduced.