The current state of relations between Russia and the West could make even an astute observer forget that the Cold War allegedly ended three decades ago. From the Kremlin’s involvement in Crimea, to the “Russian troll” campaign targeting the 2016 presidential election, to the Skripal attack, the old conflict between Moscow and the Western bloc seems to be alive and well, coming to a head even more frequently in recent years.
Of course the primary venue of saber-rattling for both Russia and the West has been military drills. The most recent exercises on both sides have taken this decades-long practice to a whole new level of magnitude. On the side of the West, Europe is right now the stage for two major NATO drills, taking place almost simultaneously.
Anakonda ‘18
On 7 November, NATO’s drill planned for Poland commenced. Dubbed Anakonda 2018, the series of exercises involves the participation of ten Alliance countries. According to reports, the key goal of the exercises is to “integrate national and allied command structures and troops” so that they could conduct a defensive operation in conditions of “conventional and hybrid threats.” In other words, NATO wants to know that member countries are able to work together in conditions that are abnormal. NATO troops will, in particular, work out the interaction of “military bodies with civilian bodies,” in essence, a scenario of an insurgency within population centers. Although most of Anakonda will take place in Poland, maneuvers will also take place in Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, as well as naval exercises in the Baltic Sea. It is the first time that NATO has undertaken drills in Baltic countries. Some 12,500 Polish troops will be deployed and nearly 5,000 soldiers from other countries will participate.
Trident Juncture
Prior to Anakonda getting traction in Poland, another NATO exercise began in Norway. Trident Juncture commenced on 25 October. With 50,000 participating troops, tens of thousands of vehicles, and dozens of warplanes and navy ships on hand, Trident was the largest set of NATO drills since the Cold War.
The explicit purpose of Trident was to push units to their operational limit. As commander of the exercise, U.S. Admiral James Foggo said in a recent interview, the venue of Norway and neighboring countries, specifically at this time of year, was chosen in order to “toughen everyone up.”
Back to the European Theater
The location may help to test the limits of participating troops. But there’s clearly another consideration at play.
NATO leaders want to know their men can perform in an actual ground conflict in Europe. That means testing them in the most demanding conditions the European continent has to offer. The U.S. military that once maintained a much larger presence in Europe during the later half of the 20th century, has been focused mostly on Middle Eastern conflicts for much of the past two decades. Trident and other projects like it are part of a broader strategy to ready American forces for operating in the European zone.
Similarly, Anakonda was also part of a larger effort of preparing for possibly confronting Russia on the continent. The NATO drills are the fulfillment of decisions taken at the NATO summit that took place in Warsaw two years ago. Anakonda will hopefully demonstrate to NATO’s International Evaluation Team the capacity of commanders to meet agreed-upon standards, part of the so-called Combat Readiness Evaluation (CREVAL).
This shift in NATO drills should come as no surprise. Since the annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula by Russia in 2014, Poland and the Baltic states, as well as other Eastern European countries, have been voicing their concerns over security more and more. Poland has been calling for more U.S. military personnel to be deployed on its territory. Warsaw even suggested to U.S. President Donald Trump recently that he create a permanent base within its borders under the name “Fort Trump.” While many policymakers and defense officials are hesitant to open another foreign base, the U.S. is certainly on board when it comes to prepping the Alliance for a showdown with Russia.
Highlighting just how real that prospect is, the two NATO drills in Europe came on the heels of a major Russian military exercise. Dubbed Vostok 2018, the drills may have been the country’s biggest ever military exercise, with 300,000 military personnel, more than 1,000 aircraft, and 36,000 pieces of equipment —including 1,100 tanks and some 50 combat ships— having taken part. The size of the drill should come as no surprise. Russia’s annual exercises have been growing in proportions ever since the yearly practice of military-wide exercises was reinstituted in 2008 in a series of maneuvers called Operation KAVKAZ in which 40,000 Russian servicemen took part. Last year, the ZAPAD 2017 drill had over 60,000 participants. But in addition to its size, the more interesting point to highlight is China’s participation in the drills. According to reports, over 3,000 Chinese troops will be joining the Russians during various stages of Vostok. From the perspective of NATO, this is probably the most disconcerting. A massive Russian military show-of-force being joined by the other Asian-giant rival of the West smacks of Cold War-era trouble.
Silver Lining?
In the midst of this mutual intimidation on the part of both Russia and NATO, a bit of good news has also come out. On 31 October, in a rather rare occurrence, NATO and Russian envoys met to discuss their respective war games. Reportedly, Russia was even invited to monitor NATO’s activities in Norway during Trident Juncture. To be sure, the conversation between officials wasn’t exactly friendly chatter. There were and still are several contentious issues between the two sides, from tensions in the Ukraine to Trump’s talk of pulling out of the INF Missile treaty.
But as a famous Churchill quote goes, “jaw jaw is better than war war.” If the current events in Europe can get the old foes to a place of more regular discussion, it may be a silver lining in the increased tensions of late.
