“I don’t always agree with President Trump. To be honest, I rarely do. Regardless, regime change in Iran is necessary. Yet America cannot force that change.”
Once again, Iran is teetering on the edge as mass protests have rocked the country over the past several days, leaving at least 21 dead. Tight media control has made it difficult to assess the situation from abroad, but the clips and images leaked suggest that the ongoing protests are easily the most forceful since 2009’s Green Movement.
President Trump, Iranian resistance groups, and others are calling for regime change. President Trump has even hinted at potential American involvement at the “appropriate time”.
Such respect for the people of Iran as they try to take back their corrupt government. You will see great support from the United States at the appropriate time!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 3, 2018
Maryam Rajavi, the president-elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, addressed protesters, stating:
“The world hears you when you cry out that Khamenei must go. Every day, more people declare that they stand by your side… You should remain steadfast and exhaust the enemy. Our mission is the overthrow of the religious dictatorship. Our mission is to establish freedom, and this mission is certainly and most definitely going to be realized.”
The calls for change are with good reason; the parasitic kleptocracy under Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei might provide some extra handouts in the face of protests, but the current regime will never lead Iran to prosperity.
Mrs. Rajavi has been joined by many within the Trump administration in calling for regime change. While President Trump came into office promising not to widely pursue regime change, he has expressed support for such change in both North Korea and Iran.
The calls for change are with good reason; the parasitic kleptocracy under Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei might provide some extra handouts in the face of protests, but the current regime will never lead Iran to prosperity. If Iran wants to prosper, the nation will need a new government that cares more about caring for its people than funding sectarian conflicts across the Middle East.
Years of sanctions caused by the Iranian governments insistent on pursuing nuclear technology, a vast and corrupt military kleptocracy, and funding Shia allies, such as Hamas and the rebels in Yemen, have crippled the economy.
It’s the Economy, Stupid
So what’s happening? A stagnant economy, a lack of opportunity for young people, rising living costs, and a government that many view as ineffective, oppressive, and corrupt have sparked protests among Iran’s downtrodden. Despite the booming global economy, Iran’s unemployment rate remains about 12% and among youth, it’s at nearly 30%. Young people without jobs tend to foment revolution.
Regardless, regime change in Iran is necessary. Yet America cannot force that change.
Iran is one of the world’s richest countries in regards to national resources, sitting on top of the world’s fourth-largest oil reserves and second largest natural gas reserves. Yet with a nominal income of less than $5,000 per capita (World Bank, 2016), Iranians are among the poorest people in the world.
Years of sanctions caused by the Iranian government insistent on pursuing nuclear technology, a vast and corrupt military kleptocracy, and funding Shia allies, such as Hamas and the rebels in Yemen, have crippled the economy. Many Iranians are beginning to rightly wonder why they remain so poor and yet their country is so rich. The lifting of sanctions should have sparked the economy, but it didn’t, at least not for the average Iranian.
Meanwhile, even as the government funds civil wars and missile technologies, they also moved to raise fuel rates for the average Iranian. The planned fuel rate hike was among the first sparks setting off the current wave of protests. It’s hard to blame an impoverished people for not wanting to shell out more of their money, especially with the Iranian government wasting so much money elsewhere.
Even if Iran’s religious leaders were pushed from power, that doesn’t mean that the Revolutionary Guard would immediately step aside.
Regime Change May Be Needed But It Won’t Be Easy
Is regime change going to happen? Perhaps someday, but the path to liberation will be paved with blood. Iran’s mullahs wield immense power. Even if the mullahs could be pushed out, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard may be even more difficult to depose. Analysts estimate that the Revolutionary Guard controls approximately 15% of the GDP. Revolutionary Guard-linked organizations are active in a huge range of industries, including telecommunications, oil, and various other fields.
They won’t be giving up that immense power without a struggle. For now, the Revolutionary Guard remains very loyal to the Supreme Leader. Even if Iran’s religious leaders were pushed from power, however, that doesn’t mean that the Revolutionary Guard would immediately step aside. The Revolutionary Guard numbers over 100,000 troops.
The Iranian people will have to take control of their own destiny. Today, tomorrow, someday, if Iran is ever going to prosper, it will need a new government.
Of course, removing the mullahs will be immensely difficult whether they have the full support of the Revolutionary Guard or not. The Iranian regime proclaims to be the head of an always ongoing “Islamic revolution.” Their religious rhetoric has bought them a lot of support among hardliners. While many young, urban Iranians lust for change, many older and more rural Iranians aren’t looking to upset the status quo.
I don’t always agree with President Trump. To be honest, I rarely do. Regardless, regime change in Iran is necessary. Yet America cannot force that change. We don’t have the resources, and regime change driven by a foreign power rarely turns out well these days. Instead, the Iranian people will have to take control of their own destiny. Today, tomorrow, someday, if Iran is ever going to prosper, it will need a new government.
