Because Ed Gillespie is winning. That’s the short answer. By now, every Virginia voter knows about the ad – a sinister person in a black truck chases down innocent children of color at play, trying to run them down. The camera focuses pointedly on the truck’s Gillespie bumper sticker, and the Confederate flag it’s flying. The message was that Gillespie is targeting immigrants and people of color, and either wants to harm their children or doesn’t care if others do.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9efSaqZDRm8
Although Northam’s campaign initially defended the ad, he changed his mind after the backlash became apparent. In fact, he denied any knowledge of it, and said his campaign had nothing to do with it. A few days later, even Latino Victory, the group that sponsored the ad, pulled it after an ISIS-inspired terrorist who entered the U.S. on a controversial diversity visa, used a rented truck to mow down innocent people in New York.
In spite of Northam’s denial of responsibility, state campaign finance reports suggest that his campaign did coordinate with the group that sponsored the ad. According to an analysis of Virginia election law, the Northam campaign’s reporting the truck video as an in-kind donation indicates that “the ad was not produced independently of the campaign, but was ‘expressly requested or suggested’ to Latino Victory.”
The question is, why did Northam and his allies run the ad in the first place? Because Ralph Northam has a diversity problem of his own, and because the polls show Gillespie overtaking him.
…even with a large black turnout, there is no guarantee that Northam will win, because there is no certainty that black voters will support him.
First his diversity problem. In mid-October, white Virginia voters received campaign flyers promoting the Democrat ticket which left out any mention of Justin Fairfax, who is running for lieutenant governor and is the only African American on the ticket. Explanations blaming the flyers on an outside group failed to quell dissatisfaction among African American voters. The flyer also cost Northam the support of a key PAC, which had been providing grassroots operations to boost voter turnout. That decision was kept secret, until Northam’s flip-flop on sanctuary cities drove the PAC to publicize the withdrawal of its support. (Northam had called Gillespie’s policies regarding MS-13, illegal immigration, and sanctuary cities racist, but he later promised to support legislation to bar sanctuary cities from the state.)
Second, the polling showed that Northam blew a 17-point lead, and the race has been closing to a tie since early October. Ralph Northam knows he is in trouble, and launching that ad was a desperate move, designed to frighten voters of color to hold their nose and support him. The Washington Post reports “…some argue that the Democratic ticket led by gubernatorial nominee Ralph Northam hasn’t done enough to energize black voters and ensure a big turnout against Republican Ed Gillespie.”
Who knows what Northam’s internal polls are showing, but he must be well aware of two facts about recent polling. President Trump famously outperformed the polls last year, and Ed Gillespie presaged that outcome with his own shocking performance in the 2014 Senate race. Although polls showed him trailing incumbent Mark Warner by 14 percent the weekend before the election, he lost by only 1 percent. Without a large turnout from black voters this year, Northam knows he doesn’t have a chance. Hence the infamous ad, and all the spurious attempts to tag Gillespie as racist.
But even with a large black turnout, there is no guarantee that Northam will win, because there is no certainty that black voters will support him. The recent revelations by Donna Brazile about how she was treated by Debbie Wasserman Schultz, the Clinton campaign, and Hillary Clinton herself are a sharp reminder of how white liberals treat their black colleagues, and voters are well aware of that.
More to the point, Ed Gillespie’s policies are sure to appeal to all voters, including African Americans. He is campaigning on a promise to cut state taxes across the board. This is especially important if the new tax law eliminates federal deductions for state taxes. Gillespie’s pro-growth policies of easing regulatory burdens and simplifying business taxation are likely to increase employment by more than 25 percent. His tough approach to gangs and crime will bring the most benefit to the poorest, most vulnerable communities in our state: rich people can isolate themselves from criminals. And the first policy proposal of his campaign was a serious, comprehensive approach to combating the opioid crisis that is tearing apart families and communities of every race and income level, showing he understands what Virginians need. Gillespie gets it.
While Ed Gillespie has put forth a serious and well considered plan to serve the voters of Virginia, Ralph Northam has resorted to spurious charges of racism to cover the failings of his own policies and his own campaign. On Tuesday, Virginia voters will show that they know the difference.
