First in a series
Several recent polls show steady gains in approval numbers for both President Trump and the generic Congressional ballot. But what does it really mean? While it doesn’t mean that either Trump or the GOP can relax, it does send a signal that voters are pleased to see them cooperating. It also sends a strong signal of support for the agenda that Trump ran on, the agenda that got him elected.
Trump Approval Approaching 50 Percent
Republicans should not be complacent, because there are much more important warning signs for them. Where they once had hopes of holding their majority in the House and increasing their majority in the Senate, they could still lose the House. Democrats have made clear that their first order of business will be to impeach Trump, halting any useful activity in Washington.
Democrats have made clear that their first order of business will be to impeach Trump, halting any useful activity in Washington.
Trump’s approval rating is approaching 50 percent for the first time in his presidency. The generic Congressional ballot is showing a statistical tie between Republicans and Democrats for the first time in the Trump presidency. Both of these numbers reflect increases of several percentage points.
The most recent result is also the most dramatic. The Politico/Morning Consult poll shows that 47 percent of registered voters approve of President Trump’s job performance, while the same percentage disapprove. This shows an improvement of 16 percentage points in presidential approval, a vindication of Trump’s doggedness in pursuit of his agenda.
Congressional GOP Approval Shows Similar Gains
The congressional survey results are equally important. For most of the last year, voters have preferred a swing back to the Democrats, when asked their generic preference. This was seen as a sign of discontent with Trump and congressional Republicans, but also as a lack of confidence in the ability of the GOP to work together and accomplish anything.
In the new poll, voters preferred Republicans over Democrats by 39 percent to 38. 23 percent of registered voters are still undecided. This represents a swing toward the Republicans of 7 to 13 points over the last several months. But it’s important to understand these results properly: they are not predicting the outcome of the midterm elections.
Because of the wide geographic distribution of national polling samples and the local nature of congressional races, the generic Congressional ballot is not meant to predict partisan election results. Generally, it has been used as an important element in identifying trends in public opinion. Voters are asked whether they intend to vote for a Republican or Democrat in their next congressional election. Their responses are aggregated and tracked over time, and have meaning only in how they are changing.
Democrats are quietly winning elections. And they are winning them even in red districts.
Therefore, the change in favor of the Republicans over the last three months is what matters, not so much the absolute numbers. That change is even more significant because it is paired with a corresponding change in approval for President Trump. It suggests that when President Trump and the congressional Republicans work together on his agenda, voters approve of them.
In spite of the positive trend, however, many other polls still show Trump’s approval several points lower than his disapproval. One aggregate of polls shows a deficit of about 10 points. Given the fierceness of the media attacks against him, that is not surprising.
But Democrats Are Winning Elections
Polls are an interesting indicator, but there is one that’s more critical, and definitive, and it’s not good for the Republicans or Trump. Democrats are quietly winning elections. And they are winning them even in red districts.
Yesterday in Florida, the Democrats won a state legislative seat that is traditionally Republican, in spite of the Republican candidate’s advantage in name recognition. His father held the seat for many years, and is currently the Congressman for the area. This was the 17th state legislative seat to flip from GOP to Democrat control since Trump’s election.
There were two special elections in Minnesota on Tuesday, for open seats in the state senate and state house. In each case, the incumbent party held on to the seat, but the Democrat candidates both outperformed Hillary Clinton. In the senate race, the Democrat won even though the district voted strongly for Trump.
This is the first of two articles about the upcoming midterm elections. The next will focus on what is driving the increase in poll numbers, and what Republicans should do to avoid an electoral bloodbath.
