“We will be most successful when we use a mix of a credible use of force, diplomacy, and strategic alliances with as many international partners as possible.”
While foreign policy pundits search for immutable laws to define a “Trump doctrine,” the truth is that American foreign policy is at its best when it’s fluid, dynamic, and open to change to meet new realities. An “Obama red line,” for example, falsely defined a boundary and served no one’s interest. With that in mind, one can only look at the general direction in any given policy and say whether it is the right direction or the wrong direction. So, let’s play red light, green light (and yellow light) with Trump’s foreign policy.
NORTH KOREA – Yellow Light: While Chief of Staff Reince Priebus calls North Korea the greatest threat facing the United States, the threat is one of urgency, not magnitude. North Korea can hurt the US and our allies quickly, but the pain is localized. It is not a real threat to American survival.
It is helpful that the administration has signaled that the time of “strategic patience” is over. That should give Kim Jong-un pause and at least allow him to consider a course correction. If he doesn’t, a determined alliance and continued pressure on China to do more can effectively deal with North Korean antics.
Russia, on the other hand, can threaten American interests globally and is an existential threat. Giving Russia its due in terms of attention is smart policy. The Russians are not easy to deal with, but the better we understand them, the more likely we can attenuate their natural tendency toward bad behavior. So, Russia….
RUSSIA – Yellow Light: Russia’s defining foreign policy imperative seems to be that if it causes turmoil and unrest in Washington, it is good. The Zero Sum Game is back for Russia, and they are due for more mischief-making soon. Certainly they will find some pretext in the near abroad for bad behavior.
One thing Russia dislikes is to be ignored, and with North Korea and Syria in the spotlight, there is surely an impulse in Moscow to muddy the waters further. As if election meddling wasn’t enough. Dealing with Russia is a full-time job, and a Trump-Putin summit might identify some new middle ground. With Russia, strategic patience is always in order.
FOREIGN AID – Red Light: Critics say there are no metrics demonstrating that foreign assistance works. Come on. How many older Europeans still remember American generosity from the Marshall Plan, or even the individual generosity of American GIs giving out chocolate?
Building goodwill overseas is never wasted. That goodwill is an investment toward the American brand—toward votes going our way in the United Nations and providing a more fertile environment for American companies operating overseas. In the Marshall Islands, we provided food, water, and emergency reverse osmosis equipment to deal with drought. Every person affected will remember that.
NATO – Green Light: Yes, NATO is relevant and has plenty of work to do in providing security for NATO members, training Afghan forces to take on more of their security responsibilities, and countering Russia’s expansionist ambitions. Trump’s welcome embrace of NATO is a good example of flexibility and learning on the job the complexities of foreign policy and the importance of maintaining and cultivating allies.
NAFTA – Green Light: Deciding not to withdraw from NAFTA was another good move, as most economists will show that the trucks going north and south of the borders everyday are indicators of economic vitality and more jobs for Canada, Mexico, and the United States. Mexico has taken a constructive approach, saying they want to “modernize” NAFTA, while maintaining they will hold firm on their key principles.
CHINA – Green Light: So far, the fiery campaign rhetoric has been replaced by a more pragmatic tone, and the door to cooperation from China on reining in North Korea remains open. While the new US-China relationship is still being defined, it is not constrained by the kind of harsh rhetoric that would make it impossible for Chinese leaders to work with the U.S.
THE WALL – Red Light: The wrong message for America to send to our neighbors and the world. It is bad economically, environmentally, and fiscally and is a 15th-century solution to 21st-century problems. It didn’t work for the Soviets, it won’t work for us, and politically, there must be some way to extricate the US from this misguided policy so resources can be spent on more urgent needs.
CLIMATE – Red Light: Somewhere along the way, we woke up to the fact that smoking causes cancer. Now that is a fact. Should we be surprised that with the whole planet in effect smoking we now face global consequences? No. It is logical that global pollution would cause global warming, coral bleaching, more extreme weather phenomena, etc. Who wants to be on the side of the 1950s doctors who said smoking is good for you? Time for a change.
THE USE OF FORCE – Yellow Light: The bombing of Syria in response to the chemical weapon attack by Assad on his own people was an appropriate way to signal that civilization’s norms will be enforced. Trump’s pressure on the UN to do more in Syria and North Korea is an acknowledgment that we can’t do it all alone. Hence the yellow light. We will be most successful when we use a mix of a credible use of force, diplomacy, and strategic alliances with as many international partners as possible.
The Trump administration has shown an ability to adapt to new complexities, and with Trump admitting that the presidency is a hard job, it’s not a great leap to also admit it is a complex and messy world.
