Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has won reelection in Egypt, winning roughly 92 percent of the vote. Of course, given that he arrested and intimidated the few legitimate candidates that had stepped forward to challenge him, the news should come as no surprise. Further, his main “challenger” Moussa Mostafa Moussa was actually an avowed Sisi supporter. Only 23 million out of Egypt’s roughly 60 million eligible voters bothered to turn up, and roughly 7 percent of the votes appeared to have been spoiled, many intentionally—even with such a high “win” percentage, Sisi failed to secure a true mandate to rule.
But that doesn’t really matter, does it? Despite the optimism that sprung from the Arab Spring back in 2011, Egypt appears to be backsliding into yet another dictatorship, and one that could potentially turn out worse than the Mubarak regime that had previously been thrown from power. Egypt is a painful reminder that democratic revolution doesn’t always yield democratic governance.
I was studying global affairs at American University when the Arab Spring took hold of Egypt, threatening and eventually disposing of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, a strong-man who had ruled the nation since 1981. The atmosphere at the university was quite exuberant and given the politically-inclined liberal atmosphere, there was a lot of talk of “freedom,” “democracy,” and other words that frequently fill UN bingo cards.
Having a rather liberal heart myself, I was likewise excited by the prospect for a fresh, democratic start in Egypt. Still, revolutions are tricky things. Conditions are just as likely, if not more so, to worsen after the old rulers are swept from office. Of course, there have been success stories as well. Many Americans, unsurprisingly, are often more enthusiastic when a revolution rolls around. After all, America is one of the great successes.
The Obama administration, media, then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and various others, however, were far more cautious in their approach. The long, bloody conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq proved how hard it can be for democracy to succeed in countries that had long been ruled by non-democratic regimes. Even if the local population supports democratic institutions, actually setting them up can be immensely difficult.
Back on campus, however, the mood was jubilant and if anyone expressed reservations, rolled eyes and pithy insults could be expected. I remember chatting with one classmate, saying something along the lines of: “obviously, I hope things turn out well but we have to be careful. The transition to democracy won’t be easy and things could turn out for the worse in the end.” That got me labeled as an “enemy of democracy.”
I have my own pessimistic tendencies—it’s true—but I always hope that they are proven wrong. Sadly, Sisi’s easy victory in a farce election has proven my most skeptical fears right. Egypt is sinking into an abyss, one that appears to be darker than even the years under Mubarak’s harsh rule.
Mubarak was corrupt, there can be little doubt. However, there’s little evidence that Sisi is any less corrupt and anything less of a dictator, even in spite of his recent “election.” In 2016, when top auditor Hesham Geneina alleged that corruption under Sisi was costing Egypt billions, he was quickly sacked. This past February, Geneina was arrested. Sisi had previously said that he’d wage war on corruption, but so far there has been little action to back up his words.
Egypt’s economy has also struggled in the post-revolution years. Under Mubarak, Egypt regularly enjoyed economic growth of between 3.5 percent to 8 percent. Following his ouster, Egypt’s economy contracted deeply, shrinking by as much as 4 percent. Since then, economic growth has bounced between 2 percent and 5.5 percent, well below historical norms and suffering from more turbulence.
The initial contraction should have come as no surprise; instability is bad for business, but the economy struggled to pick up growth in the years following. Most recently, in the fourth quarter of 2017, Egypt’s economy expanded by 5.3 percent, a solid showing—but it’s important to remember that the bar has been lowered since Mubarak has been pushed from office. Sharp increases in growth following sharp contractions aren’t all too uncommon.
At least 25 journalists are currently jailed in Egypt, but this doesn’t paint the full picture. A massive crackdown on the media has made it more difficult for journalists to even put themselves in a position of dissent. Moreover, several independent Egyptian newspapers have been seized in recent months, rolled into state-owned media organizations. It should come as no surprise that Reporters Without Borders ranks Egypt 161 out of 179 countries.
Meanwhile, many of the students who once inspired the Arab Spring have since gone underground or have been detained. Conditions for the young have not improved much either. Youth unemployment was a major driver of the Arab Spring but remains above 25 percent. Amnesty International was reporting on student activist crackdowns all the way back in 2015 when some still hoped that Sisi would avoid dictatorial tendencies.
In the past, the Egyptian military acted as a balancing power against the civil government. Protesters had shut down Mubarak’s Cairo but they didn’t force him from power. It was only when the military sided with the protesters that the end of the regime came. Likewise, it was the military that disposed of Mohammed Morsi, paving the way for Sisi, a former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, to assume power.
Could the military push Sisi out of office? Perhaps. However, military purges have become somewhat frequent under Sisi, likely weakening resistance. When Chief of Staff of the Egyptian Armed Forces Mahmoud Hegazy opposed some of Sisi’s actions, he was sacked and put under house arrest. And when two military leaders, former Commander-in-Chief of the Air Force Ahmed Shafik and former Chief of Staff of the Egyptian Armed Forces Sami Anan stepped forward to challenge Sisi, he quickly sidelined them. Anan has since been jailed and Shafik was detained until he capitulated.
If two former military strongmen could be detained with impunity it’s fair to wonder if the Egyptian military has the will and power to push Sisi out of his “elected” office. For all the hope that swelled up after the Arab Spring, conditions appear to have worsened and Sisi appears more entrenched now than ever before. The Arab Spring may have started with the dream of democracy, but those dreams died when Sisi was elected unopposed and unchallenged.
