Russia has recently started new maneuvers and tests of mobile intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launchers, and analysts are worried that these expose critical failings in US and NATO capabilities. The training exercises are happening in the Ivanovo region just northeast of Moscow in eastern Siberia. Even though this is extremely far from European borders, the maneuvers are the latest in the large-scale exercises that have critical implications for Eastern Europe and NATO.
The missiles launchers are harder to detect than other platforms, they can launch ICBMs, and it further escalates tensions in a new cold war. Russia has shown in their annexation of Crimea and undermining of the Minsk Accords in the Eastern Ukraine, as well as their pressure on smaller countries like Montenegro, that they are willing to use all available assets to pursue their goals.
They have excelled in using cyber and irregular units to undermine the governments of their neighbors. After fighting insurgencies for the last 20 years, America has underutilized electronic warfare. NATO currently doesn’t use electromagnetic systems (EMS) warfare in their drills, while Russia has practiced and developed equipment that sends electromagnetic waves that can disrupt radio communications or jam global positioning systems and drones.
Electronic warfare combined with swift action from heavy units backed by intense artillery and missile barrages can quickly seize disputed territory
Once seized, Russia would then present the West with a fait accompli that would be hard to undo. RAND calculated, for example, that Russia could seize the Baltic territories in as little as 48 hours, and current NATO exercises call for an impractical forward movement by American forces in Poland.
(Credit: Facebook/Unofficial -Pakistan Defence Command)
Finally, the mobile and hard-to-detect ICBM missile launchers would make any conflict even more dangerous, as any counter-reaction by the United States or NATO would run the risk of escalating the conflict into a nuclear war. It makes US attempts to upgrade their anti-missile technology represented in advanced sensors on the F-35 and better radar on Aegis ships more futile. It also makes the technological challenges of fielding the F35 even more frustrating and costly.
(Credit: Facebook/Edwards Air Force Base)
Training exercises in the middle of Siberia does not mean that war is imminent. But they do signal the intentions and capabilities of Russian forces. It’s important to assess those factors and then compare that with the recent Russian history of undermining their neighbors.
The use of electronic warfare and mobile missile launchers shows that the US and NATO have much more need to modernize their forces and training maneuvers. This exercise becomes one more reason for the United States to place assets in the Baltics and Eastern Europe that can identify and locate missile batteries and repulse any Russian aggression.
