Saudi Arabia is moving quickly to block Iranian aggression and expansion in the heart of Arabia, and may soon be fighting a multi-front war to do so. Iranian weapons, technology, soldiers and surrogates are now active in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. Iran continues its efforts to undermine Bahrain through its influence with radical elements among Bahrain’s Shi’a community. Finally, Iranian influence in Qatar is growing ever since the Saudis, Bahrainis, Emiratis, and Egyptians joined forces earlier this year in an attempt to force Qatar to drop its support for radical Sunni terrorists, and to stop using Al Jazeera to broadcast destabilizing messages into their countries.
When the Saudis look around their borders, therefore, they see themselves being encircled by Iran and its surrogates on more than half their perimeter. Since the disastrous exit of American troops in December 2011, the worst elements of the region rushed to fill the vacuum in Iraq and Syria. ISIS quickly trampled Al Qaeda into oblivion, and Iran moved equally swiftly into key positions in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. That Iranian reach – that Shi’a reach – across the entire Levant is unprecedented. The 2014 uprising in Yemen of the Zaydi Shia, led by the Houthi tribal group, was seen by the Saudis as an Iranian takeover of a neighboring country with a long history of trouble.
“There have been Iranian markings on those missiles. To me, that connects the dots to Iran.”
If outside observers doubted that Saudi view, that the Houthi-led government was acting on Iran’s behalf and with Iranian military and financial support, they could find evidence to confirm it in Yemen’s missile attack on Riyadh in early November. Lt. Gen. Jeffrey L. Harrigian, the U.S. Air Force commander in the Middle East said, “There have been Iranian markings on those missiles. To me, that connects the dots to Iran.” Jane’s Defense Weekly notes that although it would be difficult for Iran to ship entire ballistic missiles directly to Yemen, there is “strong evidence” that Iran is shipping weapons to its Houthi allies.
Saudi Arabia was able to shoot down the Iranian missiles, thanks to Raytheon’s Patriot missile defense systems protecting key sites all around the Kingdom. On Friday the Trump Administration announced that it intends to strengthen Saudi Arabia’s missile defense, in recognition of the increased threat from Iran. This came in the wake of other regional developments such as the resignation of Saad Hariri, the Prime Minister of Lebanon, and the arrests of hundreds of influential Saudis, including senior members of the ruling family, on corruption charges.
Mohammed Bazzi of the Council on Foreign Relations suggested today that the Saudis coerced Hariri’s resignation to try to put pressure on Iran’s proxy, Hezbollah. Bazzi noted, “Hariri granted a TV interview to a Lebanese journalist on Sunday night in which he seemed to change the Saudi demands: instead of a total curtailing of Hezbollah’s role in Syria and Iraq and Yemen, he focused on the Saudi demand that Hezbollah should not support the Houthis in Yemen. That’s one demand that Hezbollah might meet.”
Saudi Arabian Alliance With Israel?
Former U.S. Ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro writes that Saudi Arabia may hope to push Israel into a confrontation with Hezbollah. The interests of Israel and Saudi Arabia certainly are unified in this matter: they both want Hezbollah removed from their borders permanently. There are suggestions among long-time experts in the region that there already is an agreement between Israel and King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) that if Israel must go to war with Hezbollah, the Kingdom will ensure that the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) are well supplied and well financed.
The Trump Administration has made clear its unwavering strong support for MBS and his father, and for the Saudi efforts to curb Iranian influence. Administration efforts are reinforced by the bill passed by the House of Representatives imposing new sanctions on Hezbollah. While the bill awaits passage by the Senate, the Administration has offered a bounty for the capture and arrest of two top Hezbollah officials.
While Iran has made impressive political and military gains in its attempt to encircle the Islamic holy lands of the Arabian Peninsula, they suddenly find themselves encircled by an alliance among the GCC, Egypt, Israel and the United States. It is to be hoped that Iran’s leaders find the wisdom to see the futility of their position and withdraw, rather than visit more horror and destruction upon Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq. Inshallah.
