As the 2020 presidential horserace heats up on the Dem side we, good handicappers and former jockeys that we are, bring you the latest odds and intel on the nomination. This is an update to an earlier piece from a couple of months ago. We’ll continue the process as warranted.
For a party that is obsessed with identity politics, he or she who doesn’t shoulder the horrific burden of being white and male has an innate advantage. Of course, to judge candidates, or anyone for that matter, primarily based on color or gender used to be known as bigotry. It still is to thinking people. But to the badly educated knuckle-dragging hicks who form the Dem electorate (it’s sooo fun to turn that one around on them, eh?), achievement, logic, and integrity mean little. Whoop it up over things you had no choice in and/or didn’t earn? Well, that’ll get you a presidential nomination.
As things stand now there may be solidly over a dozen candidates on stage later this year for the first debate. Perhaps fifteen or more crazed morons vying with each other to offend common sense the most. It’ll be like an open mic night at the local asylum. And of course, good schadenfreudish fun for the rest of us who breathe through our noses.
Their viability against the president, barring unforeseen events, is likely to rest on two issues: the economy and immigration. If the economy stalls the Dems will have an opening. Because Trump lost the current wall/stalemate fight there will be blood in the water for the Dems, as even some diehard Trump voters may now think they were sold out by too much compromise or political cowardice. That could keep them petulantly at home on election day and make the Dem nomination that much more attractive and worth viciously fighting for.
Trump lost this fight because of a very badly executed communications strategy almost from the start to the finish of the stalemate. It doesn’t mean he will never get a wall. It means he is less likely to get one. Either way the Dems won this one, some GOP delusions notwithstanding, and it will only increase their desire to face him next year. We will cover Trump’s loss in this bout in detail in an upcoming piece.
So like 1914 European mobilization schedules after Sarajevo, the Dem contestants are hurtling towards the game. Here are the players:
Hillary: A fascinating figure. The once nasty hippy has now become an old woman and regarded, amazingly, as a moderate by Dems. Which is a good indication of how Left the party has come in the last decade. Her flying monkeys are testing the waters by a leak here and there that claims she’s running. Quite Nixonian in various ways, will she, as he did, see the presidency as Moby Dick to her Ahab and even proceed to the heart of hell until she stabs it? If she does then she may be difficult to beat because of very hard residual loyalty from 2016. The Clinton machine is still in good working order, but her potential loss to a telegenic minority candidate, as in 2008, must keep her up at night. If she runs, 2 to 1.
Biden: Yes, the dreaded old white guy. The crazy uncle who lives in the attic. But old white guys still appeal to certain Dems in a Harry Truman sense and to other Dems who realize moderate voters who you need to win a national election aren’t as racist as they are. He has massive name recognition, older party regulars who would feel comfortable with him, and experience on a national ticket. But Hillary also has all that. Biden is already eating some crow to get ready, as he is now apologizing for voting for tough anti-crime legislation while in the Senate in the 90s. He can be non-weird in real life, as I personally experienced, as we both went to the same little Latin Rite Catholic Church in Wilmington, DE. He was the soul of probity and normalcy there. If he runs, 3 to 1.
Harris: She just got in the race and she pushes all the right buttons for the Dems, as did Obama in 2008. She’s from a big Dem state, female, of Jamaican and Indian heritage (no wonder she’s kind of hot), telegenic, and hard left. Has some baggage per leftist norms from her time as a prosecutor. California is holding an early primary next year, which could give her a timely shot in the arm. Just running is a smart move, as even if she loses it sets her up for veep or a run later. Her push off the Senate Judiciary Committee will be a lost opportunity for grandstanding. But she’ll make up for it in race baiting. Interesting aside: If she fails presently but runs and wins the nod in 2024, and Trump wins in 2020 and Nikki Haley is the GOP nominee in 2024, we could see an all-Indian chick presidential general election. Cool. But now? She’s 5 to 1.
Sanders: Never going to be president. Too old, white, and male in the Democratic Party. But could be a kingmaker. He has a loyal following of populist, socialist, and youthful devotees. I met many of them at the Dem convention in Philly in 2016, which I attended with my then girlfriend as kind of a political safari into the deep twisted jungle of Demland. Found the Sanderistas to be as anti-Hillary, if not more so, than anti-Trump. Some of them, the more populist contingent, actually told me they were going to vote for Trump. But that sentiment amongst them has likely since passed. Not going to run. But if he does, 10-1. Though at this time in 2015, Trump’s odds were worse.
Warren: Really running for veep, as she has the charisma of mold and the sincerity of Jordan Belfort. Trump would massacre her in a debate, as may some of her fellow party members. The crazier true believers in the Dem hard left might back her. But they’ll jump to HRC if the former First Shrew gets in. She’s kind of a distaff commie Dukakis and would fare just as well in a general election. 8 to 1.
Bloomberg: May run as a Dem; if he does could be a haven for semi-moderate Dems, the few of them left in the party. But also challenged in the personal appeal department. More than a bit stiff. Obsessed with the gun control issue. Trump’s dream is that he runs as an independent, thus splitting the anti-Trump vote with the Dem nominee and ensuring Trump wins like Clinton in 1992. Not to mention a New York lib is an easy target for the GOP. If he runs, 12 to 1.
There are more suitors like the Over-Hyped Beto, Unknown Inslee and Brown, Cringy Castro, Cringier Booker, Nice-Seeming Klobuchar, Airhead Gillibrand, and those not yet public with their plans. They will affect the race and fellow candidates accordingly.
And we will be here to give you the odds on them all in a follow up piece coming soon…
