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Trump-GOP Unity Wins Elections

Yesterday’s article showed that Democrats are quietly winning elections, but polling numbers for congressional Republicans and President Trump are improving.  Democrats promise to impeach President Trump if they win control of the House.  This would usher in a period of national chaos and instability that is very dangerous in the face of challenges from Russia, North Korea, Iran and China.  But Trump-GOP unity will win elections, along with congressional votes.

When Republicans hold firm to the principles they ran on, and the campaign promises that Trump ran on, they win.

Democrats have succeeded in switching 17 state legislative seats from Republican hands to Democrat since Trump was elected. In addition, they have flipped a Senate seat in Alabama, the Judge Roy Moore election.  They also defeated a very strong Republican candidate for Virginia governor, Ed Gillespie, in an especially disappointing election for the GOP.

The Minnesota Results

A Minnesota special election earlier this week showed another important effect.  There were two races on the ballot, each the result of a resignation over charges of sexual harassment.  The state house seat had been held by a Republican, and the state senate seat by a Democrat.

That’s a net swing of ten points toward Democrats.

Each party held on to its seat, but that result carries a warning for Republicans.  Voters in that senate district elected a Democrat for an open seat, 52 to 48 percent.  A little over a year ago, however, they had voted for Trump by 54 to 46 percent.  That’s a net swing of ten points toward Democrats.

In a further bit of bad news for the GOP, that state senate election could end up determining which party controls the Minnesota senate.  When Al Franken resigned, the Democrat governor nominated the Lieutenant Governor to take his place.  State law dictates that the seat be filled by the president of the state senate, Michelle Fischbach.

Fischbach is a Republican in a Democrat-leaning district.  She has refused the appointment, considering it a political ploy to flip control of the senate.  But she now is embroiled in a legal battle with Minnesota Democrats over whether she can be forced to accept it.

Virginia – A House Divided Cannot Stand

The reason Republicans are not winning is clear.  They are divided amongst themselves.  The clearest example comes from the Virginia 2017 gubernatorial race.  There was lingering resentment against Ed Gillespie from the pro-Trump camp, because he had not supported Trump in 2016.

Gillespie ran away from Trump for most of his campaign. Trump voters did not respond with enthusiasm – what pollsters call ‘voter intensity.’

Gillespie ran away from Trump for most of his campaign, even after Trump tweeted support for him.  He did not ask Trump to attend his rallies.  Trump voters did not respond with enthusiasm – what pollsters call ‘voter intensity’ – to Trump’s endorsement, so the lukewarm relationship between the two ended up hurting Gillespie more than helping him.  Trump’s endorsement turned off Virginia’s liberal Republican and independent voters, and failed to ignite the pro-Trump voters.

Trump-GOP Unity Wins

There is still the matter of the recent good polling data for the GOP.  The reason for their increased approval ratings is no secret.  It runs concurrently with passage of the tax reform bill, and continues with Administration and congressional efforts to pass a budget and reform immigration policy.

Congressional Republicans put aside their differences with Trump, and passed a tax reform package.  They held firm in the face of withering criticism from the Democrats and the mainstream media (“but I repeat myself,” as syndicated radio talk show host Chris Plante likes to say).  They even ignored short-term polling data showing opposition to the plan.

This is something new.  Republicans stuck together, and stuck to principle.  Public approval followed, as corporations announced bonuses, higher wages, repatriation of profits, and investments that are creating hundreds of thousands of new jobs.  The approval is increasing as Americans see their take-home pay increase.

When Republicans hold firm to the principles they ran on, and the campaign promises that Trump ran on, they win.  In January, Senate Democrats shut down the government for a weekend to try to force Republicans to accept their proposed solution to immigration policy.  Voters disapproved by wide margins.

Americans want to see immigration reform.  They also want to see a secure border.  Those two issues are related, but are not identical.  Border security is about much more than DACA, or illegal immigration.  Our permeable southern border is the entry point for 95 percent of the heroin, fentanyl, cocaine, and marijuana that are destroying our communities.

These are the issues that got President Trump elected.  When Trump voters believe that legislative candidates support Trump’s positions, they respond enthusiastically.  They show ‘voter intensity.’  Approval ratings for Trump and the GOP are rising because voters see them working together to accomplish the Trump agenda.

If Republicans want to avoid a political bloodbath in November 2018, they need to stay united.  They need to maintain their support of Trump’s immigration reform proposal, fund meaningful border security, actually reduce the size and influence of government and the regulatory state, and reduce the national debt.  If they do, they will keep their majority in the House and could even reach 60 votes in the Senate.  If they don’t, you’d better buy gold and stock up on supplies, because the apocalypse is nigh.