Mitt Romney is running for the Senate in Utah. Romney is heavily favored to win. Utah voters not only favor him, but are eager to vote for him, enthusiastic about their support. That eagerness is what pollsters call ‘voter intensity.’
GOP Polls Improve
That voter intensity is what most Trump supporters feel about President Trump and his agenda. It’s what allowed him to run a completely unconventional campaign in 2016, based on rallies, speeches, campaign promises, and domination of the media. Voters responded, without huge TV advertising buys, polling, focus groups, and other tricks of the trade of campaign consultants.
That voter intensity is what most Trump supporters feel about President Trump and his agenda.
I wrote Thursday that while recent polls show increased approval ratings for Trump and congressional Republicans, Democrats are still winning elections. They are winning elections even in districts that voted strongly in favor of Trump in 2016. This is a sign of an impending political bloodbath in November, a probable indicator that Democrats will take control of the House.
I followed up on that story yesterday, writing that the reason Trump and the GOP have begun to make gains in recent polls is that they have started working together. They passed the landmark tax reform bill, defying a full-court press by Democrats and the media that nearly turned American voters against the bill. Congressional Republicans trusted their principles, and trusted that voters will reward them when they see their paychecks and job prospects improve.
Fortunately for the GOP, over 350 companies already have announced bonuses, wage increases and investments creating new jobs as a result of the tax reform. This week, American employees are seeing their take-home pay increase as their taxes are lower. They may or may not remember the disparaging attitude the Democrats took (Nancy Pelosi called a $1,000 tax cut “crumbs”), but they will certainly remember that they have more money.
Voter Intensity
Many American voters say they prefer a more civilized political discourse, and a more moderate tone. But they don’t show up to vote, or to volunteer, or to engage associates on social media, in favor of their candidates. They lack enthusiasm and energy. They lack voter intensity. (See the companion article for an illustration of what voter intensity means, and what it can accomplish.)
The lesson for Trump, Romney and the GOP is that a large majority of voters (outside California) voted for Trump’s agenda.
The lesson for Trump, Romney and the GOP is that a large majority of voters (outside California) voted for Trump’s agenda. Just as Mitt Romney inspires voter intensity in Utah, President Trump inspires voter intensity nationwide. But when his agenda fails, so does their intensity. When they see his agenda enacted, they respond with approval.
Obama’s ‘Fundamental Transformation’ Needed 8 More Years
Right now, the voter intensity is still on the side of the Democrats. Trump’s victory shocked them, especially the Leftists. They rejoiced in Obama’s fundamental transformation of America, and expected that Hillary Clinton would cement it in place.
After 16 years of Leftist control of government power, there would be little memory of what America was before Obama’s transformation.
Leftists have a firm grip on the educational system, and the Department of Education was using Title IX in unprecedented ways to extend it. The immigration policies they put in place by abuse of executive authority were designed to import tens of millions of new voters who would expect a paternalistic government. Between controlling the education of the rising generation and importing a voter registration advantage, they expected that Leftist policies would dominate America for the rest of time.
But Trump’s election upended their plans. They needed another eight years of a Democrat in the White House. After 16 years of Leftist control of government power, there would be little memory of what America was before Obama’s transformation.
They believe that if they can impeach Trump, or stop his agenda, they still can turn back the tide, and achieve that dream. They can stop the pendulum of American politics from ever swinging back to the right again. They are fired up, ready to go.
Trump, Romney and GOP: Unite Or Die
As long as Democrats have that voter intensity, and Republicans don’t, no improvement in polling data will be enough. President Trump and the Republicans have to give their voters a reason to feel that intensity. Republican voters have been disappointed too many times. They won’t turn out to vote if they don’t see their elected officials making a difference. They want to see the size, cost, and influence of government shrink. They want to see meaningful border security that can stop illegal drugs, terrorist infiltration, and criminal gang activity; not just illegal immigration.
Republican voters want to see the size, cost, and influence of government shrink. They want to see meaningful border security…
Passing tax reform was a good first step. Finishing the rest of the Trump agenda will energize the base, and demoralize the opposition. Voter intensity measures will swing to the advantage of Republicans. But troops don’t respond to an uncertain bugle call, or follow unsteady leaders. If the Republicans are divided, they will lose, and the entire country will pay the price.
