No, this will not be one of those “let me tell you what to think ” pieces. You’ve no doubt had enough of those cookie cutter articles already and will have your fill of them by Election Day.
Knowing that, at a day less than two weeks before the midterms, let me give you a feel for something past the numbers. The reason you probably won’t see a piece like this somewhere else is that the people who generally try to write them have never run a political campaign and thus have no knowledge of the internal and ineffable factors involved this close to the end of such. In other words, they’re as clueless as laymen writing about neurosurgery, having never picked up a scalpel and delved in. The pollsters and pundits you regularly hear haven’t even stepped foot in an OR. I’ve worked in hundreds, and run scores, of political campaigns at the local to federal level.
So, let’s have at it, eh?
The atmosphere at this point, assuming a campaign has a fighting chance of victory, is anticipatory. Many of the major decisions have been made and are now on automatic. However, you’ve got to remain flexible enough to respond to any endgame challenges and take advantage of late-stage opportunities that may come your way. Thus you go over your plan time and time again, searching for the tiny glitch to catch or the minute detail to improve upon. For it’s better to lose by 50,000 than by 500.
You obsess on small stuff like sign locations and menus. People around you are annoyed by your frenetic behavior. But you don’t care, as you chalk up their relative calmness to lack of work ethic and you barrel on with your caffeine- and tobacco-fueled workdays, which grow increasingly long until the last weekend and the two days beyond, when you’re just not sleeping at all.
You’re getting close to that point of physical, mental, and emotional collapse (which your family has grown used to over the years) that seems like an energy high, but is in reality the fireworks-laden twilight before the hungover morning after E-Day, when you crash for about 36 hours, win or lose. That is the scene inside the head of thousands of campaign operatives throughout the nation, which leads to them coming up with boneheaded ideas like the caravans, an op that has already backfired, and Wednesday’s obviously Dem false flag, staged bomb scare, designed to blunt their image as a violent mob and turn it around against the Republicans. No one of any sentience believes their spin. So pathetic.
You’re looking for that one little gambit, one last play, that will put you over the goal line. But try as you might, in so many races it doesn’t matter, as history will be the real decider of your fate. Which brings us to this election.
You’ve heard ad nauseum that the party in the White House rarely gains seats in their midterms. This is very true. But nobody has ever seen, perhaps Andrew Jackson being the exception, a political personality quite like the president. He breaks rules and overthrows historical precedent. Is it enough to win seats this time? Probably not. Enough to stave off defeat? A month ago the smart money said no. But now? Wellllll…things still lean Dem because many Dems were complacent in 2016, so confident in a Hillary win they didn’t appear at the polls in the numbers they could have shown. Though, as of today the GOP seems to be widely leading in early voting, which is unusual. So, different signals of different results. But a wave for either party? Very unlikely.
The polls of course will tell you otherwise. As a former pollster I can confide just between you and me that no pollster worth their paycheck believes any number that ever makes it to public consumption. Those polls are designed to manufacture or depress momentum, nothing more. The internals you hear so much about are no longer internal if they go public. Ergo, you’ll never get a look at the real internals. But a rule of thumb is to take the more reputable public polls like Rasmussen and add five points for the GOP. For as we saw in the 2016 presidential and in Brexit, the right is always undercounted.
The message wars have been interesting, as the Dems have stayed with the anti-Trump lines that worked sooooo well for them in 2016. But true, they are more fired up than last time. The GOP is playing up the culture war issues like immigration, but not stressing the economy enough, nor aggressively going after target groups like minority males as much as they should. Illegal immigration will be a winner for them, as 60 and 70 percentiles across the demographic board are firmly against it. The helpful audio-visual message reminder of the caravan will energize the GOP base. But, they need to also remember the Clinton ’92 message (“It’s the economy, stupid”) going into the last two weeks. The “Mobs vs. Jobs” ploy? Good, but not enough in itself to hang your hat on. One GOP advantage is that they have lots to crow about and it’s always advisable to go into the last weeks stressing a positive message. The Dems can’t get out of Debbie Downer mode and may pay for it.
Both sides will mount D-Day-like GOTV efforts aimed at their base. The GOP will look to the south, burbs, and the heartland, no surprise there. Dems will focus on the cities, young women, and minorities. That’s their 2016 formula again. Not the smartest move. Also, many don’t realize this: the weather plays a big part. The Republicans pray for tsunamis and hordes of locusts, as bad weather depresses Dem turnout, as many Dem voters are less than highly motivated and take public transportation to the polls. Weather can convince them to stay in bed or not catch the bus. The GOP drives their SUVs to the polling place.
The president’s now almost daily rallies, one in Wisconsin going on in my ear as I write this, will have some positive GOTV effects for the Republicans. But they are not dispositive, as people who come to those events are already voting GOP. The question is: Will they leave the shindigs so enthused they will convince their families, friends, and co-workers to go to the polls and push the right button?
As the last weeks progress into the last days before the vote, itchy trigger fingers will be tempted to run an ad they’ve had in their pockets for weeks. Known as a “Hiroshima Spot,” it is a scorched-earth attack on the opponent. This is done when you’re almost over the top or are bleeding and seeking to spread the hemorrhage to your rival by throwing so much mud against the wall nobody knows who to believe. This, it is thought, widens the misery and puts a pox on both houses, thus evening out the race. Others consider it just looking desperate.
Of course, if you’re actually desperate you fly Iron Hand. But I’m not allowed to talk about that, lest my former colleagues at the AAPC take away my secret decoder ring. Though, given I excelled at their Karaoke in the Capitol contest last year, I think they’d just cut off a couple of my fingers.
Bottom line on the midterms?
The GOP loses the House by about ten seats and gains two or three in the Senate. The Dems will gain House seats in purple states like Pennsylvania that Trump won in 2016. The GOP will pick up Senate seats in red states with Dem senators, like North Dakota and possibly Missouri and West Virginia. The GOP will hold their lopsided majority in gubernatorial mansions.
Scott will lose in Florida. McSally will win in Arizona. DeSantis will win by a head in Florida. Donnelly will hold in Indiana. Manchin is a toss up, as he hurt himself badly with leftist Dems by the Kavanaugh vote. Did he pick up enough GOP voters in a massive Trump state to balance out the Dem voter loss? Will he switch to the GOP if he wins? If he loses does Trump have a job waiting for him, a deal they cut for Kavanaugh? No, yes, yes. As readers of this column know we called Kavanaugh right to the exact number and Facebook acolytes remember we called Brexit and earlier House midterms on the precise nose as well. Thus, cautious optimism abounds regarding this analysis.
Is this outcome a shock to most? No. The mundane fact is that people vote the way they traditionally are supposed to unless there is a decisive factor that changes the narrative. Last time out that factor was a bombastic, yet politically way more savvy one than he was given credit for, Queens-born real estate mogul and television star.
Can he pull it off again?
The answer comes down to the most hopeful word in politics: Maybe.
