The United Arab Emirates today deported former Prime Minister General Ahmed Shafik, the Egyptian establishment figure who just announced his intention to run for president of Egypt. Shafik announced his candidacy on Wednesday, and said he planned to travel to Europe and the United States before returning to Egypt. On Thursday, however, he released a video claiming that the U.A.E. government was preventing him from leaving the country.
House Arrest, Then Deportation
“I was surprised by finding myself prevented from leaving our sister country. I was surprised to know that I am prevented from leaving the UAE, for reasons that I don’t understand and I am not willing to understand,” he said. “I reject interventions into the affairs of my country by preventing me from participating in a constitutional process and a sacred national mission.”
Shafik’s attorney, Dina Adly, said the U.A.E. authorities had discouraged him from running for president. She described his status Friday as being under house arrest. She expected that releasing the video of his statement would lead to his release.
“Just because he announced he will run for president they deported him to Egypt and I don’t know what will they do to him.”
Ms. Adly’s prediction turned out to be true, although perhaps not in the way she or Ahmed Shafik had expected. On Saturday, U.A.E authorities came to his house, arrested him, and deported him to Cairo. Although he had planned to go to Cairo eventually, he had intended to arrive only after his planned trip to NATO countries. Presumably, he had expected to meet with supporters on both sides of the Atlantic, and return in a triumphal entry after several weeks of positive international media coverage.
Shafik’s daughter, May, told Reuters, “We were about to leave to travel to France. They came and took him. They deported him in a private plane. They said they will deport him to Egypt. Just because he announced he will run for president they deported him to Egypt and I don’t know what will they do to him.”
Ahmed Shafik: General, Prime Minister, Presidential Candidate
The United Arab Emirates are closely allied to the current Egyptian president, Abdel Fattah Al Sisi. Al Sisi faces a re-election campaign in spring of 2018, and General Shafik poses a credible threat to his chances. He is known as a strong political player, and his background positions him well for a presidential bid.
Ahmed Shafik was an Air Force general for decades, and has qualified to fly Soviet-, French- and U.S.-designed airplanes, including the F-4 Phantom and the F-16. He served in Hosni Mubarak’s cabinet as Minister for Civil Aviation for 9 years, and oversaw the modernization of Egypt Air and the construction of a new terminal at Cairo International Airport.
At the end of Mubarak’s regime, Shafik was appointed Prime Minister, but served only one month. In the force of the revolution following the Arab Spring, he was seen as too close to Mubarak to be able to govern with legitimacy. When Mohamed Morsi ran for president in 2012, however, General Shafik was his main opponent. Morsi won that election by a narrow margin – about two per cent – but was removed from office the following year by Al Sisi after widespread dissatisfaction with his rule.
Egypt’s Critical Role
There is a common assumption in the region that the events of this week are an example of the U.A.E authorities trying to help an ally, Egypt’s President Al Sisi. Maintaining strong allies is especially important to all regional players right now. As regional tensions heat up between Saudi Arabia and Iran and their respective allies and surrogates, securing Egypt’s support is critical.
If the region is plunged into war, the countries of the Arabian Gulf feel that they must be able to count on the participation of Egyptian military forces. They also feel the need to ensure that Egypt is governed by a leader who can keep the famous ‘Arab Street’ under control. Al Sisi has demonstrated that ability.
There is no sign that General Shafik is considered a threat to national security, or that he is hostile to America, NATO, or the GCC. But at a time when the GCC countries want complete predictability in case of impending war, Shafik represents a potential change in the status quo. Expect to hear more of him in the next five months, but the last three days have been a rocky start for his presidential campaign.
