Trump won the 2016 Presidential Election by tearing down the “blue wall” that was supposed to protect Hillary Clinton. These states are now among the best economic performers in the nation.
The economy is a tricky thing, and to this day smart people who have dedicated their life to studying economics often struggle when it comes to predicting and correlating market movements. That being said, the American economy under President Trump continues to do well, particularly in regards to employment. Whether this was due to anything Trump or his predecessor did, or is the result of unrelated circumstances, is up for debate.
However, what’s not up for debate is the general strength being enjoyed in much of “Trump’s America.” Trump won the 2016 Presidential Election by tearing down the “blue wall” that was supposed to protect Hillary Clinton. These states are now among the best economic performers in the nation. The President managed to flip numerous states that had previously gone for Barack Obama, including Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, and Pennsylvania. These states were supposed to ensure a Clinton victory, but instead were the nails in her coffin.
These states are also enjoying lower than average unemployment. Back in December, the average unemployment rate among Trump swing states was nearly 5%, but has since dropped to about 3.9%. This compares with a national average of 4.1%, down from 4.7%. This means that the unemployment rate in the Trump swing states is not only lower than the national average, but actually started from a higher point.
In general, the economy has continued to perform well under the Trump administration. The economy also closed strong during the second half of Obama’s second term, after languishing for years. The Great Recession is now well in the rear view mirror, though some analysts worry that the next economic downturn could be around the corner.
Strong Economy, Weak Poll Numbers
When it comes to voters, the old saying goes, “it’s the economy, stupid,” signaling that for most voters the economy generally takes precedence. If the economy is doing well, voters tend to be rather upbeat. However, despite the strong performance of the economy under the Trump administration, many voters in the above mentioned swing states are turning against the President.
A survey conducted by Michigan State University found that only about 30% of people in Michigan approve of the job the President is doing. 51% of respondents said that Trump was doing a “poor” job. Gallup puts Trump’s approval rating at roughly 42% in Michigan, but this data was gathered before the recent drama regarding Charlottesville.
As of June, Trump’s approval rating in Pennsylvania was only 43% and 42% in Florida, while it was 47% in Ohio and Indiana and 45% in Iowa. Trump is struggling with approval ratings in some traditional Republican strong-holds as well, with only 42% of voters approving in Texas and 43% in Georgia. These low poll numbers will make it difficult for the President to push through his agenda.
Presidents generally stand the best chance of securing reelection when approval ratings are at or near 50%.
Further, should Trump chose to seek reelection in 2020, he’ll need to improve on his poll numbers. Presidents generally stand the best chance of securing reelection when approval ratings are at or near 50%. Former President Barack Obama is currently enjoying an approval rating of 63%. Generally, Presidents do better in polls once they are out of office.
