“There is reason for caution and reassessment whenever China introduces new technology or makes a dangerous move. But the United States also has time-tested methods and platforms, as well as new innovations that suggest fear mongering is unwarranted.”
The US Navy plans to fire new high-speed rail guns at the same time the Chinese South Sea Fleet is adding a submarine squadron to its operations. The new developments show the response and counter-response of ratcheting tension between the US and China in the South China Sea, but they also show that the US retains a commanding position in that contest.
The Hyper Velocity Projectile, or HVP, can travel at speeds up to 2,000 meters per second when fired from a rail gun—a speed that is about three times that of most existing weapons. According to the Naval Capability Program, “The rate of fire is 10 rounds per minute. Also, due to its ability to reach speeds of up to 5,600 miles per hour, the hypervelocity projectile is engineered as a kinetic energy warhead, meaning no explosives are necessary.”
The final result is a new smart projectile that can be fired faster, with more accuracy, and at longer ranges than current weapons. The missiles can be used for both offensive and defensive missions including countering drones and missiles and striking other ships and land-based targets such as radar stations, airfields, and missile batteries. This gives American commanders another option to counter such new dangers as missile or drone swarms. And it can also add firepower to any first strike option for a near nuclear North Korea.
This technology builds upon existing anti-missile weapons that naval ships have had since the 1970s. The current technology has a shorter range of only 15 miles, and it can’t specifically target, so the gunners have to use large amounts of ammunition to cover the general area in which the missile is approaching. The new rail gun technology, like the nets and search lights added to battleships to counter new torpedo boats, shows that supposed game-changing technology is often little more than something that requires modest adaptation to existing technology.
Overall, this is an important development that shows that the United States is not being static in response to Chinese developments. Many analysts focus on the scary new Chinese super weapons such as hyper-sonic missiles or drone swarms that will make it impossible for the US to operate in the South China Sea or even make the carrier obsolete. It’s why I believe the term for this strategy, anti-access area denial (A2AD), has entered buzzword territory and brings little to the discussion.
At the same time the United States is developing a new rail gun, the Chinese are adding new threats to the South China Sea. This is a vital shipping lane filled with resources such as natural gas and oil, and it is contested by multiple South Asian powers. China has fielded Russian and home-built submarines since the 1970s. This development signals that the Chinese fleet is moving from a brown water fleet focused on protecting the littorals and home defense to a blue water fleet that can project power abroad.
Chinese leaders have cut the size of their army and made the modernization of the fleet a priority. They have bases in South Asia (the Pakistani port of Gwadar) and Djibouti in the Horn of Africa. They participate in anti-piracy operations in the Red Sea, but they have also built up and militarized disputed islands in the South China Sea and continue to undermine the international system through actions like ignoring the judgment of the world court concerning disputed islands in the South China Sea.
Thus, there is reason to be suspicious of a Chinese buildup. But just like the over-hyped missile and drone threats from China, which required minor modifications of weapon systems that have been tested and used for 50 years, the Chinese threat from submarines and a more expansionist blue water navy is simply more of the same that America faced from the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
The United States continues to adapt and adjust to new threats using time-tested methods.
The United States has developed anti-submarine warfare since the Battle of the Atlantic in World War II. Using fixed wing aircraft, destroyers with specialized equipment, and their own larger and more experienced submarine fleet, Americans should be confident they can counter any threat from China.
This analysis is before we take into account the many eddies, currents, reefs, and shoals in the South China Sea that make submarine operations rather tricky. China has crashed submarines during previous temporary deployments in the area. Much like the Chinese pilots who might have new and better fighters but lack the demanding training and combat experience of their American counterparts or Saddam Hussein’s modern forces that evaporated upon contact with American forces, having new and fancy equipment might sound nice on paper, but it doesn’t mean the Chinese seamen can match American expertise. (Though it’s important to remember that several American ships have made basic mistakes like crashing into non-combat vessels, which causes some concern about their combat capabilities.)
While America continues to debate the role of a phone call to a gold star family, the evolution and counter-evolution race in the South China Sea continues. The United States continues to adapt and adjust to new threats using time-tested methods. There is reason for caution and reassessment whenever China introduces new technology or makes a dangerous move. But the United States also has time-tested methods and platforms, as well as new innovations that suggest fear mongering is unwarranted.
