“This is an ideological battle as much as a military one. The free modern world cannot allow itself to be forced into a reemergence of society from hundreds—if not thousands—of years ago where logic, civility, and tolerance were absent and shunned…”
Iraqi Prime Minister Hayder al-Abadi said on March 14, “The battle now is in the final stages. They are cornered, and if they will not surrender they will definitely get killed.” But the fight for the remainder of the city of Mosul will certainly be a hard-fought one. While Prime Minister Abadi’s confidence about the outcome is warranted and the ISIS fighters have nowhere to go, the most dangerous animal is one that is backed into a corner.
But what will be the broader repercussions of Mosul’s liberation for the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, more widely recognized as ISIS)? As mentioned in a previous OpsLens article, ISIS will revert back to its roots.
Back to Insurgency
On the tactical level, ISIS will have to devolve into an insurgency, leaving civilians extraordinarily vulnerable. They will increase suicide bombings on soft targets. They will attack pilgrims, funeral processions, the government, and infrastructure in an attempt to remain relevant.
Unfortunately, ISIS’ leaders will feel comfortable with this battle rhythm adjustment. Many of them started as insurgents. These are terrorists, nothing else. They lack clear religious ties and legal tenants and are loosely connected only in their common goal to create a caliphate and ultimately cause the domination of the world’s religion with their perverted version of Islam.
The fighters of ISIS are a conflagration of differing motives, driving forces, and allegiances. The one common thread is hatred for the US, the Christian religion, and all those who do not see Islam as they do. They kill those whom they call infidels and Muslims alike. There is no real direction. They seem to be bent on destruction for destruction’s sake. They are the very definition of terrorism. Under the banner of predecessor groups such as Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) and the Islamic State of Iraq, they attempt to establish legitimacy.
The Insurgent Raises His Head
As it became apparent that ISIS would inevitably lose its grip on the main territories in Iraq and Syria, a devastating car bomb in the Shia-dominated Karada district of Baghdad killed more than 200 civilians. The bombing, which was the deadliest explosion in Baghdad since 2003, was followed closely by a triple suicide attack at a Shia holy site in Balad. On February 24, ISIS fighters were pushed out of Al Bab, their last stronghold in northern Syria. The following day, two suicide bombings claimed 53 lives.
The move to insurgency makes the political track more valuable than ever, as ISIS seeks to hide within the population. “We rely on the people to billet us,” as the Northern Irish nationalist Gerry Adams once put it. ISIS is relying on the same principle.
Other Countries Push ISIS Up Against a Wall
With the successful eviction of ISIS from Sirte in Libya, authorities must expect an increased infiltration of Tripoli and other major cities by ISIS sleeper cells. Regardless of the victories over ISIS, the drivers for radicalization and recruitment—the raison d’etre—are still there. It is in the brutalizing combination of immense poverty and political party grievances where ISIS finds allies.
The Next Battleground for ISIS
The defeat of ISIS in Mosul has a critical effect on Syria. ISIS is squeezed between Turkish-backed and Kurdish forces. The battle for Raqqa in Syria, ISIS’ last stronghold, has entered the endgame portion of the fight.
The Kurdish-backed Syrian Democratic Forces have positioned forces in surrounding villages and cut the supply road to Deir Az-Zor, with the aim of isolating and besieging the ISIS stronghold from all sides. Furthermore, the United States commitment is to serve as a buffer between various rebel factions and to provide weapons, advisors, and air and artillery support. These moves by the US are having a major effect.
The Reemergence of Al-Qaeda
Since ISIS came to the forefront in the battle against the infidels, Al-Qaeda has taken a back seat. This will change as competition between the two organizations increases. As ISIS is weakened, Al-Qaeda will attempt to assume the position as the premier terrorist organization once again. Al-Qaeda may very well raise its head again as the leader in the terrorist fight against the rest of the world. They will attempt to be the predominant force fighting against the enemies of their skewed and co-opted version of the Muslim religion.
In Syria, Al-Qaeda has been a very dominant force within the armed opposition. They have been operating officially under the banner of Jabhat al-Nusra until July 2016, and unofficially as Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (JFS) since. Its leaders aim at a grassroots insurgency to incrementally assimilate into Syrian society.
At the same time, the JFS is on the verge of open conflict with another Islamist faction, Ahrar al-Sham. Further developments tend to indicate Al-Qaeda is trying to influence and infiltrate into much smaller and disjointed organizations in the region in an attempt to bring them under the Al-Qaeda umbrella. Al-Qaeda is seeking to be the guiding force that unifies the factions fighting against the west and in turn establishes an Islamic caliphate under the Al-Qaeda banner. This is something that Al-Qaeda has latched onto as a unifying cause, and as ISIS’ failed caliphate is assaulted and its fighters and supporters fan out across the region, we will see a resurgence of Al-Qaeda.
The Tentacles Extend
In January 2017, JFS spearheaded an alliance with smaller Salafist groups, known as Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham, making it a formidable player in the country’s northwest. Ahrar al-Sham, with its more moderate, nationalist orientation, has itself taken in some smaller factions seeking protection from JFS, and tensions have now reached fever-pitch in Idlib, the last rebel-held province.
What Are We Missing?
The focus has been on the Middle East. ISIS and Al-Qaeda have been most vocal and apparent there. The clear and outright combat—almost conventional warfare, which a terrorist organization cannot win—has been in the Middle East. As this unfolds and captures the attention of the world, there is another area that has been almost overlooked. ISIS and Al-Qaeda have not forgotten this region, and the West, as well as the rest of the world, need to realize that ISIS and Al-Qaeda are working in this area. It is almost like the magician that directs the observer to look in a particular direction as they make their move somewhere else. It is a distraction at its most basic.
The African Dimension
In Africa, Al-Qaeda has been a deciding force. Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) has withstood pressure from the Algerian security services, US drones, and French-led intervention in Mali. AQIM has launched a range of attacks in recent years. Regardless of the type of attacks or their effectiveness, Al-Qaeda remains in control.
In Algeria, AQIM’s birthplace, the ISIS-linked Jund al-Khalifa may have been weakened, but at least two other groups have pledged allegiance to the so-called caliphate. In Tunisia and Libya, where Al-Qaeda affiliates are firmly established, ISIS has already proven unable to resist the challenge of Al-Qaeda in the Sahel. ISIS has deferred to the directions of Al-Qaeda and taken a back seat.
In Yemen, an ungoverned failed state, ISIS has made appearances in the Al-Qaeda heartland of Hadramout Province, with deadly suicide bombings in Mukalla and Aden. From January to June 2016, Al-Qaeda-linked groups launched more than 100 attacks in West Africa. Three jihadist groups operating in the Sahel region have merged to form one single organization, said Mauritania’s private news agency.
Among the groups joining the merger south of the Sahara are Mali’s Al-Qaeda-linked Ansar Dine and Al-Murabitoun, led by Algerian extremist Mokhtar Belmokhtar. Earlier this month, four Sahel-based affiliates announced their merger into a single movement under the leadership of Iyad Ag Ghaly. Ag Ghaly was a key figure in the 2012 rebellion in Mali that saw a collection of Islamist and militant groups, including Al-Qaeda’s North African affiliate, seize control of the country’s vast and lawless northern region.
End Games
As the fight in Mosul and Raqqa winds down, thousands of North African natives who were fighting in Syria and joined ISIS’ ranks are returning to their homelands. This is a significant issue, as these fighters are not only trained in warfare and have the skills gained in combat, but also have the mentality of dedicated terrorists.
The takeaway is the following. Like rodents, ISIS can be chased from one area to another. This does not solve the issue. Doing this only pushes the problem to another location. It is akin to the game “Whack a Mole,” but there is a solution, and it is twofold. The very ideology of ISIS must be shown to be false. ISIS and those who support it must be removed from positions of influence. This will take a concerted and cooperative effort from the free world. ISIS is an ideology and movement that must be eliminated. The doctrine of ISIS must be shown to have no valid basis in the Koran.
ISIS has no place in modern society, and it cannot be allowed to drag the rest of the world into a repressive, fanatical, stone age existence that has been the result everywhere ISIS (and Al-Qaeda, for that matter) have established themselves. In my career, I have been stationed in areas where ISIS was operating. I have personally seen the repression and downward spiral of the region when ISIS or Al-Qaeda has a presence. What were once bustling territories revert to extreme poverty and brutality.
ISIS fighters are not receptive to conversion back to the accepted standard of civility. There is a great deal of information, case studies, and various state-run attempts shown that deradicalization of ISIS fighters is unsuccessful. Incapacitation (as in confinement) or elimination is the only effective way to deal with the dedicated and committed ISIS/Al-Qaeda follower.
This is an ideological battle as much as a military one. The free and modern world cannot allow itself to be forced into a reemergence of society from hundreds—if not thousands—of years ago where logic, civility, and tolerance were absent and shunned. ISIS and mentalities like theirs must not be able to flourish, establish a foothold, or gain any semblance of acceptance. The world must come together and eliminate ISIS and the violent worldview that created such a perverted movement.
Survival of the free modern world dictates the elimination of ISIS and the ideal that is radical Islam. It has no place in the world today, if ever it did.
There is no other choice.
Jon Harris is an OpsLens contributor and former Army NCO, civilian law enforcement officer, and defense contractor with over 30 years in the law enforcement community. He holds a B.S. in Government and Politics and an M.S. in Criminal Justice.
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