“The Middle East is a horribly complicated area and many just want to say that we should leave them to their own problems. But the rapid rise of ISIS after withdrawing should caution against the temptation to simply withdraw from the world and its problems.”
In response to Secretary of State Tillerson’s recent address, Michael Dougherty at the National Review and others have asked what we are doing in Syria. They claim the war is illegal and unauthorized. Dougherty stated, “We’re going to finish off both ISIS and al-Qaeda. Then resolve the conflict between Assad and his opponents, diminish Iranian influence, make the country safe for returning refugees, and ensure that there are no weapons of mass destruction in the country. And we’re going to do it without committing major resources. Yessiree, we’re going to lick this Syria problem even though our putative allies in the region are now more divided than ever.”
Admittedly, the situation in Syria is complex and the problems are immense, but these problems were inflated by the previous inaction, and are not going to get better by withdrawing.
By the election of 2012, Vice President Biden was bragging that Iraq was one of the Obama’s administration’s greatest achievements. But the U.S. and Iraq couldn’t come up with a status of forces agreement. They claim this was because Iraqi leaders wouldn’t concede on key points. But the Obama administration offered so little forces and so little help that Iraqi leaders didn’t want to spend their limited political capital to make those offers. In short, the Obama administration basically scuttled the negotiations and precipitously withdrew. This presented an opening for the forces in Syria to seize large parts of Iraq.
The civil war in Syria had many competing sides, including a legitimate moderate force in 2011. But after a red line that wasn’t enforced, feeble negotiations with congress, and leading from behind in Libya, the civil war in Syria produced hundreds of thousands of deaths, war crimes, 10 million refugees and displaced persons, and ISIS and other militant groups in a much stronger position. They stormed through the power vacuum in Iraq and created a nightmarish regime across both countries.
After changing the rules of engagement, helping the Iraqi army, and placing Special Forces in Syria, ISIS has lost almost all of their territory. But if anything should have been learned over the last five years of internecine civil war, atrocities, and the rise of ISIS, it is that inaction often has as many negative consequences as action.
For example, Turkey is currently attacking Kurdish forces in the North East corner of Syria, which is leading to strain among two key U.S. allies in the region. But it strains credulity to believe that the U.S. will have more influence if they withdraw the advisors and support from their allies in the region.
The Middle East is a horribly complicated area and many just want to say that we should leave them to their own problems. But the rapid rise of ISIS after withdrawing should caution against the temptation to simply withdraw from the world and its problems. So why are we in Syria? As Europe found out with their migrant crisis, and America found on 9/11, problems over there often become problems that explode in our sky or wash up upon our shore.
For a relatively small amount of soldiers and material committed to stabilizing and influencing post war Syria, we can help ensure the defeat of radical terrorism, decrease the influence of a militant Russia and Iran, and make sure that this front on the war on terror remains dormant. On top of that, the most effective remedy for the refugee crisis is to give people the option to stay in their own country.
This is never a fun or easy thing to do with so many costs in men and material, but the costs of doing nothing are often far worse.
