Welcome to Wider Europe, RFE/RL’s newsletter focusing on the key issues concerning the European Union, NATO, and other institutions and their relationships with the Western Balkans and Europe’s Eastern neighborhoods.
I’m RFE/RL Europe Editor Rikard Jozwiak, and this week I am drilling down on two issues related to Armenia: the first-ever EU-Armenia summit and the bloc’s new mission to the South Caucasus nation.
Briefing #1: The First-Ever EU-Armenia Summit
What You Need To Know: Armenia has become the European Union’s closest ally in the South Caucasus. While Georgia continues to drift away from the bloc and Azerbaijan remains an important partner in terms of energy imports but little else, it is now Yerevan that Brussels is truly betting on in that region.
The European Union has already made it clear it wants to counter Russian influence in the upcoming Armenian parliamentary elections on June 7, and several European officials have told RFE/RL they see it as the most important vote in the bloc’s immediate neighborhood this year. The very fact that the EU is setting up a new mission (see below) in the country to counter foreign interference shows the club’s intent.
Another clear indication of how highly Brussels currently values Yerevan is the first ever EU-Armenia summit taking place in the Armenian capital on May 5, which both European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and President of the European Council Antonio Costa are set to attend.
This comes just a day after the city hosts the summit of the European Political Community (EPC), bringing most European leaders a country that rarely gets international political attention.
Deep Background: Getting its own summit with the EU is quite a feat for the small South Caucasus republic. This is normally only reserved for really big international players such as China, India, or the United States; close and friendly neighbors like Moldova, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom; or regional blocs and groupings such as ASEAN, the African Union, or the six non-EU nations of the Western Balkans.
The summit itself will be mostly symbolic. The draft summit declaration, seen by RFE/RL, sketches out as much. There is nothing about a potential future EU membership of Armenia — an idea that the current government has been toying with in recent years. Instead, it simply states that the “EU reaffirms its steadfast commitment to further strengthen its relations with Armenia and to support Armenia’s resilience, reform agenda, and long-term development, bringing Armenia closer to the European Union.”
The text also notes that leaders at the summit will discuss the geopolitical situation in both Iran and Ukraine. On Armenia’s fraught relations with its neighbor Azerbaijan, there is not too much apart from a line stating that “we reaffirm our strong support for peace, security, connectivity and prosperity in the South Caucasus, and commend the efforts to further institutionalise the bilateral peace process with Azerbaijan and to ensure the final signature of the peace treaty.”
Drilling Down:
- Interestingly, there’s no mention of Russia in the document, even though it is likely that a line such as “Armenia’s future must be determined freely and democratically by its citizens without external pressure” was probably penned with Moscow in mind.
- While not pushing Armenia to align with EU sanctions on Russia, Brussels is keen for the country to step up when it comes to preventing circumvention of the restrictive measures imposed on Moscow.
- The paper states that “We agree to continue our effective cooperation to counter sanctions circumvention, especially concerning the trade in dual use and sensitive battlefield items, including preventing the misuse of Armenia’s financial sector in this regard.”
- No new EU cash for Yerevan is specified in the paper, which still is referencing the 270 million euros foreseen for an EU growth plan for the country and the 2.5 billion euros Yerevan could get under the bloc’s Global Gateway strategy, which is Brussels’ answer to China’s Belt and Road Initiative of investment in developing countries.
- Similarly, there are no new commitments to Armenia’s armed forces with Brussels so far having dedicated 30 million in nonlethal aid in the last few years under the so-called European Peace Facility (EPF). There are, however, indications from EU sources RFE/RL have been in touch with that more cash will soon be offered by the EU within this program.
- The declaration also states that “The EU and Armenia are committed to enhance their relationship in the field of security and defence, including through the dedicated annual consultations.”
- On other specific investments, there is a mention of the “possible Black Sea Electricity Submarine cable,” a project that has been mentioned before by Brussels but hasn’t commenced. There is also the development of a roadmap to decommission the country’s only nuclear power plant, known as Metsamor, slightly outside Yerevan.
- On visa liberalization, one of Armenia’s main aims since starting a so-called visa liberalization dialogue with Brussels in 2024, there is “significant progress” with the aim from both sides still being that Armenian citizens could travel to most EU countries without visas by the end of the decade.
Briefing #2: The EU’s New Mission To Armenia
What You Need To Know: EU foreign ministers have given a green light to a new civilian mission to Armenia on April 21 that will help Yerevan with hybrid threats such as foreign election manipulation, cyberattacks, and illicit political funding over a two-year period starting in the coming months.
The mission, which will be called the European Union Partnership Mission in the Republic of Armenia (EUPM Armenia), was first requested by the South Caucasus nation in December. After several assessments in Brussels and Armenia, the bloc’s ambassadors unanimously voted in favor of the proposal to establish the mission last week.
Deep Background: EUPM Armenia will essentially replace another EU mission in Armenia, called EUMA, that finishes its four-year mandate at the start of 2027 having been created in 2023.
EUMA, however, had a completely different mandate, being created to contribute to stability in the border areas of Armenia and via patrolling and reporting support normalization efforts between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
While EUMA had over 200 people posted both in Yerevan and along the border to Azerbaijan, the new mission is expected to just have 20-30 people, mostly working in close cooperation with national authorities in the capital.
EUPM will have no links to Azerbaijan even though one of the previous EU documents related to the mission, seen by RFE/RL, stated that Brussels will “continue its outreach to Azerbaijan to explain the purpose of the EU’s support to Armenia and the need to avoid negatively impacting the ongoing peace process.”
Drilling Down:
- While not stated directly in the proposal to be approved by the ministers, seen by RFE/RL, it is clear Russian interference in Armenia is the main concern for the mission, notably the upcoming parliamentary elections in Armenia on June 7.
- According to several EU diplomats speaking under the condition of anonymity, the EU hopes to copy what it sees as the success in the parliamentary elections in Moldova last year in which pro-Brussels forces retained power.
- While not sending a fully fledged mission to Chisinau then, the bloc did provide staff to ministries to expose Russian disinformation related to the vote.
- The mission is also set to help in later local elections and in the potential constitutional referendum that might come after the national vote. That plebiscite would be part of the current peace deal with Azerbaijan, with Baku claiming the current Armenian Constitution contains territorial claims to Azerbaijan.
- Concretely, the proposal states that the mission of EUPM “shall enhance the resilience of Armenia in the field of hybrid threats through the provision of strategic advice as well as operational level advice and support to relevant security sector agencies, in line with a whole-of-government approach and in close coordination with other like-minded actors.”
- According to the document this includes providing strategic advice to relevant Armenian ministries and agencies “for countering hybrid threats, notably Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference (FIMI) and cyber, as well as illicit financial flows in the electoral and political context.”
- In a previous document by the EU foreign policy corps, the European External Actions Service (EEAS), the need to counter the Kremlin’s influence in Armenia was stated clearly, with one of the reasons for the mission being that it “should be aimed clearly at reducing and mitigating Russia’s destabilizing activities.”
- It also warned that “Russia has intensified its coercive posture toward Armenia amid Yerevan’s gradual reorientation toward the EU, exploiting Armenia’s deep economic dependency and the fragile regional security environment.” It added that if Brussels didn’t held the country, “The EU would miss a historic opportunity to enable regional actors to free themselves from Moscow’s embrace at a moment of Russian weakness in the region.”
Looking Ahead
The focus in Brussels this week will very much turn to Cyprus as the Mediterranean island will host EU leaders for an informal summit on April 23-24.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will address the leaders via videolink, but the main discussion point will be Iran and how European nations can contribute to the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and to discuss measures to lower the spiraling energy costs in the bloc due to the blockade.
That’s all for this week. Feel free to reach out to me on any of these issues on X @RikardJozwiak, or on e-mail at [email protected] .
Until next time,Rikard Jozwiak
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