“After Trump has gone all-out in his lambasting of Pakistan, the question of the hour is just how the country’s leadership will respond in the long term.”
Donald Trump turned once again to Twitter to announce an important foreign policy decision.
In his first tweet of the year, the president posted that the US will no longer grant military aid to Pakistan as its leaders have received “billions of dollars in aid over the past fifteen years” and have repaid the United States with only “lies and deceit.”
Following up on Trump’s tweet, a National Security Council spokesman stated that “the United States does not plan to spend the $255 million in FY 2016 foreign military financing for Pakistan at this time.”
Many US media outlets reporting on the incident expressed surprise at the president’s words relating to Pakistan, some relaying the statement of Pakistan’s foreign minister implying that Trump was blurring the line between “fact and fiction.”
Putting this recent announcement by Trump into context, however, will show that it should not be taken as a surprise at all, but as rather the natural progression of a rather clear US policy plan—a course that had begun to be laid out some months ago.
This is not the first time Trump has taken steps undercutting the funding received by Pakistan. Back in August, the administration reported that military aid to Pakistan in the order of $255 million was being placed in a type of escrow account. The announcement came shortly after the US troop surge in Afghanistan, announced in a White House strategy statement for the region. A key part of this strategy was to influence Pakistan to take a stronger stance on jihadist elements by both cutting off support emanating from the country and stopping the trend of militants being harbored in their territory. The aid to Pakistan was withheld in order to leverage Pakistan to show it was taking concrete steps to fulfill these demands.
To be fair, Pakistan leaders certainly want to crack down on the extremism in their country. Not just to appease the Americans but for their own sake as well. Over the past several years, Pakistan has arrested countless extremist leaders (even executing some of them), conducted special operations on its own soil to eliminate cells of radicals, and deployed military forces in its major cities in response to security threats.
However, this does not negate the reality that Pakistan as a whole contains a series of systemic extremist problems. Pakistan’s intelligence and military are infused with extremist sympathizers. The upper-middle management of these organizations have had actual former Mujahedeen fill their slots—people who gained their initial experience fighting Russians in Afghanistan in the 1980s with the help of American logistics and money. The actions of these men and the organizations they run, while not necessarily reflecting the wishes of their political masters, have had a hugely detrimental effect on the fight against militants in Afghanistan.
The military and the Inter-Services Intelligence Service Directorate (ISI) actively support groups such as the Afghan Taliban and its powerful subgroup, known as the Haqqani Network. The Taliban’s Pakistani representation, which is based in Quetta in Baluchistan province, as well as other cities and towns across the country, openly recruits men to fight against Americans in Afghanistan.
ISIS has also taken root in the country. The organization both funnels support to fuel conflicts in the region and executes terror operations in the country.
Other militant Islamic groups, such as the infamous Lashkar-e-Taiba, with which the perpetrators of the 2008 Mumbai attacks were affiliated, and Harakat-ul-Mujahideen operate openly inside Pakistan.
Pakistani military and intelligence officials have knowingly passed along intelligence to Taliban, al Qaeda, and other terrorist leaders and operatives, tipping them off to raids and other targeted attacks by Western coalition forces.
And that’s just within the security apparatus.
On the political and civilian side, Pakistan contains important logistical infrastructure for the Taliban and other similar groups. Pakistani banks and traditional money exchange networks known as ‘hawalas’ knowingly provide financial services for the Taliban.
Pakistani politicians and clerics support the Taliban and help train militants at the madrassas and other institutions they are affiliated with.
By withholding funds and including the country as part of its strategy in dealing with Afghanistan, the administration was prodding Pakistan to start cleaning house.
Over the past four months, Trump and his team have been looking on to catch some sign that Pakistan was moving in the right direction. Unfortunately, the reality on the ground has indicated that terrorists are still operating freely in the country.
Just as recently as December 26, the US targeted a jihadist leader in a drone strike in Pakistan’s own territory in the Kurram province. The target, known as Jamiuddin, was a high-ranking officer in the Haqqani Network—an integral part of the Afghan Taliban also known to be closely allied with both al Qaeda and Pakistan’s ISI. According to reports, this was just one of five strikes in Pakistan over 2017.
After Trump has gone all-out in his lambasting of Pakistan, the question of the hour is just how the country’s leadership will respond in the long term. Will it take the prospect of losing out on its US aid as a further motivation, or will it react to Trump tit-for-tat with some of its own aggression?
The US ambassador to Pakistan has already been summoned to the foreign ministry, likely indicating a scolding on the part of Pakistani officials. Indeed, Pakistan has in the recent past indicated that it has a limit to putting up with demands US strategy places on the country. Earlier this month, for instance, the head of Pakistan’s Air Force, Air Chief Marshal Sohail Aman, went so far as to threaten shooting down US drones that violated the country’s airspace.
There are also signs, however, that Pakistan would like to smooth things over and vindicate itself. Foreign Minister Khawaja Asif tweeted “we will respond to President Trump’s tweet shortly inshallah” and that his government was preparing a response that “will let the world know the truth.” The minister even offered to pay an American audit firm to verify that in fact Pakistan has not even received the sums that Trump claims it has.
Time will tell the end results of this latest political drama. It may very well turn out that Trump’s January 1st tweet triggers a substantial change in the US-Pakistan relationship and the role Pakistan plays in America’s regional strategy.
