The Democratic party is currently at a pivotal juncture as voters are displaying a growing sense of disinterest towards President Biden, a concerning pattern that party donors and strategists are interpreting as a distressing “red flag”. There is a notable and alarming shift occurring in the political landscape, one that Democrats simply cannot afford to overlook.to ignore.
The Wake-Up Call: Michigan Primaries
Recent election results from the presidential primaries in Michigan serve as the flashpoint of this deepening concern. To be honest, this should have been a concern before the previous election. A staggering 100,000 voters, who previously supported Biden, opted to mark their ballots as “uncommitted”. This stark departure from party loyalty is perceived as a wake-up call by many within the Democratic fold.
“The math and historical comparisons (2012, 2016) of the Michigan results are irrelevant. The fact that 100,000 uncommitted Democratic voters exist is itself a wake-up call,” according to a memo circulated by the progressive donor network, Way to Win.
The memo further underscores the intensity behind the “uncommitted” voters, cautioning it is a force that should not be undermined or disregarded. The Michigan results are seen as a critical warning signal that necessitates immediate action. The status quo is untenable.
The Uncommitted Protest: Biden’s Stance on Gaza
During the Democratic presidential primary in Michigan, a significant portion of individuals from the Arab American community living in the state passionately implored voters to reject Biden because of his backing of Israel’s military operations in Gaza. Nevertheless, Biden secured 81% of the vote in the state, leading to an approximate loss of about 101,000 votes for the rival candidate.
The Ghost of 2016 and the Fear of Redux
The Way to Win memo warns of a disturbing parallel between the current political climate and the 2016 election. Then, Hillary Clinton, despite losing the Democratic primary to Bernie Sanders, was confident of Michigan’s blue leanings in the general election. However, to the Democrats’ shock, Trump clinched a victory in Michigan by a slim margin of fewer than 11,000 votes.
“Michigan 2024 is not an anomaly, just as Michigan 2016 was not,” the memo ominously notes.
The memo suggests that potential voters are hesitant to support Biden due to feelings of disillusionment and disaffection, which could lead to demobilization.
The Domino Effect: Super Tuesday
The trend of “uncommitted” votes extended beyond Michigan, making its presence felt on Super Tuesday. Regardless of Biden’s overall success, a significant portion of Democratic voters in states like Alabama, Colorado, Iowa, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, and Tennessee refrained from endorsing him; consequently, his support may be more fragile than anticipated.
In North Carolina, a shocking 88,000 voters, nearly 13% of the total, chose “No Preference”. Massachusetts saw 54,000 voters, roughly 10%, marking “No Preference”. Similar patterns were observed in Colorado, Tennessee, Alabama, and Iowa with Biden losing approximately 8%, 6% and 4%, respectively, to “uncommitted” votes.
In these states, the option of not declaring a preference was often the second most popular choice, indicating a broad-based dissatisfaction with Biden as the Democratic frontrunner.
Conclusion: A Call to Action
Way to Win’s memo concludes with a stern warning:
“There is a real and present danger that too many voters in close swing states who are fed up with the system will either not vote at all, vote but skip the presidential ballot, or vote for third-party presidential candidates.“
To offset this looming threat, the memo advises Biden to address the concerns of the protesters, reconsider his stance on Gaza, bolster Vice President Kamala Harris’s visibility on the campaign trail, and stress the importance of voting for Democrats.
The Democrats, it seems, are standing at a crossroads. Democrats are beginning to display indications of concern, thereby drawing focus to the matter at hand.
